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DUN 4 | Community Facebook.com/TheReporterNewspapers ■ twitter.com/Reporter_News Redistricting may ensure the blue wave’s Democratic dominance in local suburbs BY JOHN RUCH AND BOB PEPALIS City elections will be big news this fall, but around the same time, another polit ical process will begin with even longer- lasting impacts: the redrawing of Congres sional, state legislature and City Council districts. Redistricting could affect the makeup of councils that in most cases do not now reflect the racial and ethnic diversity of their populations. And, one expert says, the redistricting may cement the new blue-wave Democratic dominance in local representation in Congress and the Gener al Assembly, even though Republicans will control the process. One certainty is that the once-a-decade process will be intensely political as it at tempts to balance short-term incumbent protection against long-term game plans, says Charles Bullock III, a University of Georgia political science professor and author of “Redistricting: The Most Politi cal Activity in America.” “If you get it right, you hold [the legis lature] for 10 years,” said Bullock of the General Assembly GOP majority that will conduct the Congressional and state re- districtings. And in the digital age, they will be able to make finely detailed tweaks to district maps for political ends. “What’s often said is, the people [once] chose their legislators and now the legislators choose their people,” Bullock says. Drawing a district A district is the territory that an elected official represents. At each level of govern ment, districts can vary in shape and size, but must contain closely similar numbers of people under the U.S. Constitution’s re quirement of equal representation. To maintain that equal representation, dis tricts are redrawn every 10 years follow ing the results of the U.S. Census, which most recently was conducted in 2020. Previously redistricting processes typ ically began around late summer. But the 2020 Census results have been de layed by the COVID-19 pandemic, miss ing the deadline for the “apportionment” data needed for redistricting, according to the National Conference of State Legisla tures. It remains unclear when that data will arrive, but Bullock said the process is likely to begin in late fall and last several months, with the aim of having new dis tricts in place for 2022. The majority-GOP state legislature gets to draw its own districts as well as Geor gia’s Congressional districts. Gov. Bri an Kemp likely will call a special session of the General Assembly to focus on that task, Bullock said. As for City Council districts, that pro cess will be up to local governments. “The timing and process of redistricting at the local level is largely governed by city charters and local legislation,” said Holg- er Loewendorf, research manager for the Georgia Municipal Association. Officials in Atlanta, Brookhaven, Dun- woody and Sandy Springs indicated they are not yet sure how the redistricting will be performed. Brookhaven, which incor porated in 2012, has never redistricted before. When Sandy Springs last redrew council districts in 2013, the work was done by then City Councilmember Ga briel Sterling, who since has become in ternationally famous as overseer of Geor gia’s historic 2020 presidential election and critic of former President Trump’s conspiracy theories. (Sterling has been tapped to chair the city’s Charter Commis sion this year.) Rules of the game At all levels, “Rule number one is, your districts need to have roughly equal popu lation,” said Bullock. To avoid court chal lenges, Congressional districts need to be very close to equal. By law, state districts can vary up to 5% more or less, but legis lators need to provide a convincing ratio nale, like keeping the district within the same county; a variation of 1-2% is more common. “Second rule would be, you don’t dis criminate against minorities,” said Bull ock. “If you have an existing minority-ma jority district, you probably don’t want to break it up - ‘crack’ it, is the term they use.” Governments aren’t required to create minority-majority districts, Bullock said, but they better have “some non-racial ra tionale” for why they did not if there were viable alternatives that someone sues over. He says that’s especially true “if a mi nority population is relatively compact and is in one part of the city, and instead of putting it in a district, you cracked it...” Within those two rules, there is plen ty of room for gamesmanship on protect ing incumbents, punishing the opposi tion and setting long-term partisan power plays in motion. But a tricky factor, especially in the north metro area, can be seen in the many close election results in so-called marginal districts, where neither major party dom inates the electorate. Bullock says that marginal districts can be great for voters, as their representatives may be more re sponsive and moderate. But such districts are loathed by incumbents and parties, as a slight change in the political wind can blow them out of power. That’s what happened 20 years after a Democrat-led redistricting attempted to protect many incumbents by preserv ing their marginal districts. A conserva tive shift in national politics knocked out many of them. “If there’s a wave against you, you lose a lot,” said Bullock. Protecting two 6th Districts? Now the Republican-led state legisla ture faces a similar situation, Bullock said. “Especially on the north side of Atlanta, Republicans are going to have to make a choice,” he said: Help remaining incum bents saying “protect me,” or shore up fewer districts with bigger GOP margins. “What you’re thinking about is not how will these districts perform in 2022, but how they are going to perform in 2030,” Bullock said. “... I think that may be a battle within the Republican caucus.” Such calculations, Bullock speculates, may mean the Republicans giving up on two local districts -- both numbered 6 - that made attention-getting flips to blue in recent years: the 6th Congressional and the state Senate District 6. XiOCL/; IT’S LOOKING PRETTY. WHAT WILL BRING YOU TOPETPEOPLE? 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