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OPINION
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gainesvilletimes.com
Monday, November 12, 2018
Shannon Casas Editor in Chief | 770-718-3417 | scasas@gainesvilletimes.com
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The First Amendment: Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or
prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right
of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.
I’m no fan of
Sessions, but
he got raw deal
An immigration attorney coming to the defense
of Jefferson Beauregard Sessions, who lost his job
as U.S. attorney general on Wednesday, is akin to
a Christian coming to the defense of the lions of
ancient Rome: It’s surprising and just plain weird.
But that is what this immigration attorney is
going to do, and I understand that it won’t elicit
enthusiasm from the extremes on the left or the
right, particularly after the midterms.
At the outset, I have to note that I abhor the
immigration policies put into place under Ses
sions, who embraced with obvious enthusiasm
his role as Deporter-in-Chief. Since he took office,
the following groups of people have been on his
hit list: refugees, mothers
with children, victims of
domestic abuse, victims of
gang violence, and anyone
who uses the word caravan.
He has reinterpreted long
standing administrative
policy to narrow the options
for asylum seekers, tried
to end Deferred Action
for Childhood Arrivals
(DACA), severely limited
the ability of immigration
judges to exercise discre
tion, and implied that peo
ple like me are coaching our clients to lie about
the persecution they suffered.
He’s done all of this under the guise of mak
ing America safer, which seems ironic, since the
only large-scale terror attacks since Sessions took
office were conducted by U.S. citizens who were
already in the country, including Wednesday
night’s shooting in Thousand Oaks, Calif., that left
12 dead; the 2017 assault on GOP congressmen in
which Sen. Steve Scalise was shot; and last month’s
assassination of 11 worshipers at the Tree of Life
synagogue in Pittsburgh.
The perpetrators of those crimes? Not a Middle
Easterner, a Latino gang-banger or an anchor
baby in the bunch. So I am not a huge fan of Ses
sions’ approach to keeping America safe on the
backs of people who are themselves desperate to
find safety. His version of immigration reform is
cruel and draconian.
Nevertheless, I’m disgusted by President
Trump’s treatment of a man who was loyal to him,
but who no longer served his purposes.
I believe that Trump demanded Sessions’ res
ignation because he knows that come January, he
will be heading into choppy waters as the opposi
tion party takes control of the House. With images
of subpoenas dancing in his head, it seems that
he wanted to put a firewall between himself and
some crusading Democrats. Plus, he’s always
seemingly resented Sessions for recusing himself
from the Russian investigation.
But with that recusal, Sessions showed loyalty
and integrity, two qualities that I admire and trea
sure. He deserves our respect for showing alle
giance to the country over his boss.
I’m outraged about Trump’s firing of his most
loyal minion. If the president actually looked at
his Justice Department, he would see that Ses
sions has single-handedly advanced the Trump
agenda on drugs, criminal justice, and, as I noted
ruefully above, immigration. Trump gets up on his
high horse at those ridiculous rallies and screams
about caravans and the invasion at the southern
border, but Sessions is the one who was actually
doing something about it.
Take the word of an immigration lawyer: He
made my life and my clients’ lives hell.
I’m also nauseated by the mean-spirited, petty
way that Trump dispatched Sessions. According
to reports, he sent John Kelly to do his dirty work
and didn’t even have the guts to meet personally
with the very first senator who endorsed him at
the start of his then-quixotic campaign.
The immigration lawyer in me is glad to see Ses
sions go. But the part of me that respects courage,
independence and integrity is disgusted with the
shameful treatment he received.
Christine M. Flowers is a columnist for the Tribune
Content Agency.
A
CHRISTINE M.
FLOWERS
cf lowers'! 961 @
gmail.com
Your government officials
U.S. government
President Donald Thimp, The White House, 1600
Pennsylvania Ave. NW, Washington, DC 20500,
202-456-1111,202-456-1414, fax, 202-456-
2461; www.whitehouse.gov
Sen. Johnny Isakson, 131 Russell Senate Office
Building, Washington, DC 20510,202-224-
3643, fax, 202-228-0724; One Overton Park,
3625 Cumberland Blvd., Suite 970, Atlanta
30339, 770-661-0999, fax, 770-661-0768;
isakson.senate.gov
Sen. David Perdue, 383 Russell Senate Office
Building, Washington, DC 20510,202-224-
3521, fax 202-228-1031; 3280 Peachtree Road
NE Suite 2640, Atlanta 30303, 404-865-0087,
fax 404-865-0311; perdue.senate.gov.
U.S. Rep. Doug Collins, 1504 Longworth House
Office Building, Washington, DC 20515, 202-
225-9893; 210 Washington St. NW, Suite 202,
Gainesville 30501,770-297-3388; dougcollins.
house.gov
U.S. Rep Rob Woodall, 1725 Longworth House
Office Building, Washington, DC 20515, 202-
225-4272, fax 202-225-4696; 75 Langley Drive,
Lawrenceville 30045, 770-232-3005, fax 770-
232-2909; woodall.house.gov
Georgia state government
Gov. Nathan Deal, 203 State Capitol, Atlanta
30334; 404-656-1776; www.gov.georgia.gov
Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle, 240 State Capitol, Atlanta
30334, 404-656-5030; www.ltgov.ga.gov
Don’t believe polls, bet odds
Republicans held the Sen
ate! Democrats took the House
but by a narrower margin!
Did I just embarrass
myself?
I write this Election Day
morning, before most polling
places even opened. I don’t
know the actual results, of
course.
But I’ll pretend I do because
I trust the betting odds.
As of Tuesday morning,
ElectionBettingOdds.com, a site I co
founded, says Republicans have an 84
percent chance to hold the Senate and
Democrats a 71 percent chance to retake
the House.
Why trust a bunch of gamblers?
Because they have the best track record!
Polls have flaws. Some people lie to
pollsters or just give them what they
think is the “proper” answer. Others
won’t even talk to them.
Pundits are worse. They often let
their personal preferences skew their
predictions.
Bettors are more accurate because
of something called the “wisdom of
crowds. ” It turns out that an average of
many people’s estimates is usually more
accurate than any one person’s views.
Researchers noticed that while watch
ing the TV series “Who Wants to Be a
Millionaire.” Stumped contestants could
poll the audience or call a friend.
The friends, often experts of some
kind, got answers right 65 percent of the
time. The studio audience included few
experts, but the crowd got the answer
right 91 percent of the time.
The crowd that bets on elections
online (political betting is legal in Europe
and at a small American futures market
called Predictlt.com) works hard to get
the answers right.
They look at more than polls. They
factor in the latest news, try to sense the
mood on the ground and research candi
dates’ campaign tactics.
They try harder than
pundits because their
own money is on the line.
You’ve met blowhards who
confidently predict things
until someone says, “Want
to bet?” Then they shut up.
People who put their money
where their mouths are
become more careful.
Prediction markets, or
futures markets, are not
new. Stock markets are prediction mar
kets where people bet on companies’
future earnings. A hundred years ago,
“More money was traded in election
markets than in stock markets,” says
economist Robin Hanson.
Then, unfortunately, governments
in America banned most betting. That
deprived Americans of one of the best
predictors of future events.
There were a few exceptions. Fifteen
years ago, U.S. officials asked Hanson to
create a betting market that might pre
dict future problems.
“The Department of Defense heard
prediction markets were interesting,
doing powerful things,” says Hanson.
“They said, ‘Show us it works for stuff
we do... (P)redict events in the Middle
East.’”
As usual, some elected officials were
horrified by the idea of people betting on
things like possible terrorism. Sen. Ron
Wyden stood up on the Senate floor to
declare such betting “ridiculous and gro
tesque.” The next day, the secretary of
Defense declared the project dead.
So the Pentagon is deprived of predic
tions that might save lives. It’s too bad,
because bettors are just, well, better.
But not perfect. While the betting odds
are almost always the best predictors, in
the last presidential election they (along
with polls and pundits) were wrong about
Donald Trump. Bettors gave him only a
20 percent chance.
I shouldn’t say “wrong.” Twenty
percent just means Trump had a 1 in 5
chance. That’s not nothing.
The betting markets also got Brexit
wrong. They gave it a 25 percent chance.
But in both cases, as election results
came in, the betting odds shifted much
faster than the TV coverage. It was fun
watching anchors try to catch up to what
ElectionBettingOdds.com already pre
dicted on my phone.
As I write, the website says this about
specific states:
Republicans will narrowly win Ari
zona (51 percent chance) and Missouri
(57), and easily win North Dakota (80),
Tennessee (80) and Texas (79).
By the time you read this, say bettors,
Democrats will have flipped Nevada (60
percent chance) and held West Virginia
(75), Montana (65) and New Jersey (81).
Republicans will win the Georgia
governor’s race (64 percent chance), but
Scott Walker will lose in Wisconsin (59),
and Florida now probably has a new far-
left governor (64).
Were the bettors right?
I assume some were not. After all, a 60
percent chance of winning means win
ning only 6 out of 10 times.
Whatever way it turns out, we’ll add
the results to the “track record” section
at ElectionBettingOdds.com.
We’ll also keep tracking the 2020 presi
dential race.
Odds update every five minutes, but
Tuesday morning the odds for 2020 were:
Donald Trump: 36.1 percent
Kamala Harris: 10.9 percent
Elizabeth Warren: 5.9 percent
Tulsi Gabbard: 5.7 percent
Bernie Sanders: 4.2 percent
Joe Biden: 4.1 percent
Unfortunately, I don’t see many advo
cates of restrained government on that
list.
John Stossel is a columnist for Creators
Syndicate.
JOHN STOSSEL
www.johnstossel.com
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An open letter to Sen. Ted Cruz
Dear Sen. Cruz,
Congratulations are in
order. You managed to
defeat perhaps the most for
midable opponent in the 2018
election cycle — one infused
with oodles of out-of-state
cash, who carpeted the state
with yard signs and basked
in the adoration of an often
sycophantic national media.
Still you, the “most unlik-
able man in the Senate,”
beat him in a free, fair electoral contest.
Truly a feat.
That says something, although not
what I suspect you think it does, about
Texans and about you. Because while
Democrats (and some Republicans
disillusioned with the direction of their
party) no doubt cast their votes for
“Beto” O’Rourke because of who he is
(or purports to be), many of those who
checked their ballots for “Ted Cruz” did
so in spite of who you are.
True, likability isn’t everything; Beto
proved that. Where you stand on the
issues matters, and the majority of Tex
ans, even a shrinking one, still stand with
you. They desire limited government.
They believe in first freedoms, like the
right to life and free exercise. They want
less federal regulation of their land and
businesses. They want an immigration
system that’s fair and a border that’s
secure.
Those are the policy posi
tions you ran on and the ones
you promised to advance in
Washington, D.C.
But your first term in the
Senate wasn’t marked by leg
islative victories or even ear
nest attempts at reasonable
compromise in the name of
getting things done. Instead,
it was notable for your
theatrical filibuster (which
accomplished what, exactly?)
and for your laudable, albeit failed, cam
paign for the presidency.
Like President Obama, you never
seemed that interested in serving the
people of your state as a senator — your
eyes were always focused on a much
larger prize, and it showed.
Six years later, the bulk of Obamacare
remains in place and a viable replace
ment continues to elude Congress; the
Senate failed to pass a 20-week ban on
abortion; and our nation is still no closer
to passing substantive immigration
reform. In fact, you stood against a seri
ous, bipartisan attempt at immigration
reform proposed by our state’s senior
senator. Why?
To be fair, these failures are the col
lective responsibility of lawmakers. Still,
it’s fair for Texans to ask, what are you
doing for us?
Good news. Now is your chance to
show us.
You have another opportunity to
exhibit real leadership in Washington.
To build the kind of relationships with
fellow legislators that help them trust
you and make them want to follow you.
You have six more years to reach out,
listen to and engage with the people of
your state — not just the allegiant ones,
but the independents, the disillusioned,
the beleaguered communities. You, Sen.
Cruz, whose debating skills are unparal
leled, have the ability to convince these
people, who are told progressive is the
only way to be, that conservative princi
ples are their principles and that conser
vative policies are intended to increase
their freedom and opportunity.
Reach out sincerely and consistently
to the Hispanic community. Go to the cit
ies and suburbs and win them back with
reasoned arguments and good ideas.
And for heaven’s sake, stand up to
President Trump when necessary.
You’ve done it before when it mattered.
Do it more often.
This election should leave you rattled,
humbled and perhaps newly aware
that — even in Texas, even in reliably
red Tarrant County — winning elec
tions requires more than getting out the
base. It requires expanding that base. It
requires principled leadership.
Start being that leader.
Cynthia M. Allen is a columnist for the
Fort Worth Star-Telegram.
CYNTHIA ALLEN
cmallen@
star-telegram.com
She Stines
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