About The times. (Gainesville, Ga.) 1972-current | View Entire Issue (Nov. 27, 2018)
SOUTHEAST The Times, Gainesville, Georgia | gainesvilletimes.com Tuesday, November 27, 2018 5A Midterms show South split along urban, rural lines CARLOS OSORIO I Associated Press Democrat Stacey Abrams, who lost her bid for governor, answers her phone Aug. 3, before speaking at the National Association of Black Journalists in Detroit. BY BILL BARROW Associated Press ATLANTA — The Solid South is no more. A century of rule by “Southern Democrats” followed by a gen eration of Republican domination is evolving into something more complex. This month’s midterms revealed a South that is essentially split ting in two. In states like Georgia and Texas, population growth and strong minority turnout propelled liberal Democrats such as Stacey Abrams and Beto O’Rourke to come close to statewide victories once thought impossible. Yet the Old Confederacy states in between are mostly holding to form, with white majorities giving President Donald Trump high marks and con servatives a clear advantage going forward. An Associated Press analysis of election returns along with data from AP VoteCast, a national sur vey of more than 115,000 midterm voters, found two factors largely driving election outcomes. Competi tive races required both a racially diverse electorate and Democratic success in building support from white voters in growing metro areas. One or the other wasn’t enough. For instance, Democratic hopes to make inroads in Kentucky and Ten nessee failed because there weren’t enough minority voters to rely on. Meanwhile, the GOP maintained its grip on Alabama and Louisiana, states that have a significant minor ity population but where white vot ers in metro areas often voted in line with their rural counterparts. The same scenario could play out Tuesday in Mississippi’s runoff elec tion for a Senate seat. That’s what makes Georgia and Texas stand out: The two factors were simultaneously in play to turn statewide elections competitive for the first time in a generation. That didn’t translate into victory for Abrams or O’Rourke, but the results could help Democrats navi gate the upcoming debate over the type of presidential candidate to select. It could also help the party decide where to send financial and organizational resources. Trump, meanwhile, may have to pay more attention to places that have tradi tionally been loyal to the GOP. “The story is the rise of the South ern city centers and the surround ing areas,” said Republican pollster Brett Cowden, whose Alabama- based firm Cygnal has polled and led campaigns across the region. “People are moving there from all over, and they tend to be under 50 and college educated. Those are problem areas for Republicans.” Democrats are happy to embrace those changes, even if they’re not uniform. “What we’re talking about here is parts of the South starting to look like the rest of the battlegrounds around the country, where Demo crats can stitch together a diverse coalition and win,” said Boyd Brown, a Democratic consultant and former state lawmaker from South Carolina. “But then we still have such a bad brand with small town whites,” said Brown, who is white and comes from a rural part of the state. Virginia has already made a significant transition following decades of growth in the Washing ton suburbs that pushed the state from a GOP advantage to a two- party toss-up and now to the edge of becoming firmly Democratic. That trend could accelerate after Ama zon picked Arlington, Virginia, as one of its new headquarters, poten tially flooding the area with tens of thousands of new voters. At the other end of the spectrum is Mississippi, where the Old South’s racial politics has been on stark display ahead of the Senate runoff between Republican Cindy Hyde- Smith, who is white, and Demo cratic former Agriculture Secretary Mike Espy, who is black. Falling between Virginia and Mississippi is perpetual toss-up Florida; North Carolina, which has been a presidential battleground since 2008; and Georgia, which could debut as a presidential battle ground in 2020 after Abrams’ got a surprising 49 percent of the vote in her bid to become America’s first black female governor. “Understand this is no longer a red state,” Abrams said in an inter view, insisting the 2020 Democratic presidential nominee should “con test Georgia.” Texas is a wild card, with O’Rourke coming within 3 percent age points of Republican Sen. Ted Cruz in a state Trump won by 9 points in 2016. AP VoteCast, a nationwide sur vey of the American electorate con ducted for The Associated Press by NORC at the University of Chicago, demonstrates the dynamic playing out across the South. Nationally, whites made up 74 percent of the electorate. Among small-town and rural whites (30 per cent of the electorate), 63 percent backed a Republican House can didate, compared with 35 percent for Democrats. Suburban whites (33 percent of the electorate) split 51 percent for Republicans and 46 percent for Democrats. Urban whites (11 percent of the electorate) sided with Democrats, 57 percent to 40 percent. Whites in Virginia voted much like whites nationally, but the composition of the electorate was modestly different. Small-town and rural whites solidly supported Republicans but made up a slightly smaller share of the Virginia elec torate compared with the elector ate nationally. Suburban whites, meanwhile, were divided in their votes and were a slightly larger share. Georgia saw mixed results, with metro areas gaining strength, but whites in Georgia still leaning far more to Republicans than whites nationally. Abrams drew enough nonwhite voters and white liberals to the polls to outperform Hillary Clinton’s 2016 presidential vote totals. But Abrams still fell about 55,000 votes short of Brian Kemp because of his nearly 3-to-l advan tage among whites. VoteCast showed 82 percent of small-town and rural white Geor gians backed Republican House candidates. The Republican advan tage was 68 percent to 30 percent among suburban whites. The mar gin among urban whites was nar row, 52 percent for Democrats to 46 percent for Republicans. Still, the long-term trends could be a warn ing sign for Republicans. Those rural whites cast 26 percent of bal lots, and suburban whites cast 30 percent — both figures modestly lagging the national marks and likely to shrink as Democrats’ base in Atlanta grows. Alabama police say black man’s visible gun ‘heightened’ threat The Associated Press HOOVER — Police in Alabama offered sympathy Monday to the family of a black man killed by an officer responding to a shoot ing at a shopping mall, but said the man’s visible handgun “heightened the sense of threat” to police in an already chaotic scene. Emantic “EJ” Bradford Jr., 21, was shot and killed by a police offi cer responding to a Thanksgiving night shooting that wounded two people at the Riverchase Galleria mall outside Birmingham. Hoover police initially portrayed Bradford as the gunman saying offi cers acted heroically to “take out the threat” within seconds of shots being fired in the crowded mall. Then they retracted the statement, saying Bradford was likely not the gunman responsible for the initial shooting, who remains at large. “He saw a black man with a gun and he made his determination he must be a criminal,” Ben Crump, a lawyer for Bradford’s family said during a Sunday news conference in Birmingham. The family’s lawyer said wit nesses have contacted his law firm saying Bradford was trying to “wave people away from the shooting” and the officer did not issue any verbal commands to drop the weapon before shooting the 21-year-old. Police said the details of what transpired remain under investigation. Police and the city of Hoover on Monday issued more detailed state ments on the shooting and the inves tigation. They said Bradford “had a gun in his hand as police officers responded to the active shooter situ ation between mall patrons. ” “We can say with certainty Mr. Bradford brandished a gun dur ing the seconds following the gun shots, which instantly heightened the sense of threat to approaching police officers responding to the chaotic scene,” the statement said. They later clarified the use of the verb “brandished” saying it meant Bradford was holding a gun. “We are deeply and sincerely sympathetic to Mr. Bradford’s grieving family and all of those affected by this incident. We all want answers and we believe that with patience and focus, the truth will be firmly established,” the statement says. Bradford’s father said he wants to see body-camera video from the shooting. The Monday police statement says “body camera video and other available video has been turned over to the Alabama Law Enforce ment Agency (ALEA) which is now investigating the shooting. “Release of any video will be done as ALEA deems appropriate during the investigation,” the state ment said. Awesome Oran 4 favorite varieties delicious oranges ■ ^ fresh from the Grove WOW! Handpicked fresh from the grove! 4 unique varieties. 20 delicious oranges! Handpicked and hand packed, our fresh, juicy oranges are delivered to your door fresh off the tree! Twenty plump, delicious oranges in 4 favorite varieties. • 5 Navel Oranges Juicy, sweet and seedless, they’re everyone’s favorite! • 5 Petite Red Nave Is Spicy sweet flavor with a bright red flesh. • 5 Tangerines Rich Honey-Sweet flavor with easy-to-peel skin. • 5 Petite Navel Oranges Snack-sized sweet treat. Call 1-844-632-6340 to order item 494X or Visit HaleGroves.com/N19517 Order Item #494X, mention Code H9VH-E115 for your $18 savings. Only $19.99* (reg. $3739), plus $5.99 shipping & handling. Satisfaction completely guaranteed. This gift ships in December at the peak of freshness. Order by Dec. 17,2018 for GUARANTEED Christmas delivery. IC: H9VH-E115 Call now and SAVE 47%! ‘Plus $5.99 handling to the 48 contiguous states. Limited time offer, good while supplies last. Not valid with any other offer. Limit 5 boxes per customer. ■^ERICA’S ORIGINAL BUTCHfZ TENDERNESS and SAVE 75%' on Omaha Steaks 30 GOURMET ITEMS! The Family Gourmet Feast 2 (5 oz.) Filet Mignons 2 (5 oz.) Top Sirloins 2 (4 oz.) Boneless Pork Chops 4 Boneless Chicken Breasts (1 lb. pkg.) 4 (3 oz.) Kielbasa Sausages 4 (4 oz.) Omaha Steaks Burgers 4 (3 oz.) Potatoes au Gratin 4 (4 oz.) Caramel Apple Tartlets Omaha Steaks Seasoning Packet 55586GXZ I $100.01' separately Combo Price Omaha Steaks BONELESS CHICKEN BREASTS ORDER NOW & SAVE 75% Plus get 4 more Burgers FREE OMAHA STEAKS BURGERS 4X 1-866-334-1897 ask for 55586GXZ www.OmahaSteaks.com/excellent45 'Savings shown over aggregated single item base price. Limit 2 55586 pkgs. Your 4 free burgers will be sent to each shipping address that includes 55586. Standard S&H will be added per address. Flat rate shipping and reward cards and codes cannot be used with this offer. Not valid with other offers. Expires 2/28/19. All purchases acknowledge acceptance of Omaha Steaks. Inc. Terms of Use and Privacy Policy. Visit omahasteaks.com/ terms-of-useOSI and omahasteaks.com/info/privacy-policy or call 1-800-228-9872 for a copy. ©2018 OCG I Omaha Steaks, Inc. 118M1531
