Newspaper Page Text
,0-UGLAS COUNTY SENTINEL
DOUGLASVILLE, GEORGIA, FRIDAY, ^DECEMBER 31, 1943
goger W. Sabson
BUSINESS AND FINANCIAL OUTLOOK FOR 1849
(Continued From Page 1)
U Poultry and dairy products
also increase in volume dur
ing
than
1949, prices averaging less
1948 prices.
12. Farmers will continue. to
work for extensions of subsidies.
The above four farm forecasts
assume normal weather., A
drought could upset these.
Happy New Year!
irom
SOUTHLAND ICE CO.
Phone 2711 M. D. HARDEN, Mgr.
Good Health! Good Cheer!
FROM TI^E EMPLOYEES OF
COLONIAL STORE
DOUGLASVILLE, GEORGIA
Taxes
13. The Federal Budget will
not be decreased during 7949.
14. Federal taxes will not be
decreased during 1949, but there
may 'be some readjustments to
encourage venture capital and
to ease the tax burden on wages.
15. We forecast that an attempt
will be made by some cities to
put ceilings upon real estate tax
es or enact local sales taxes.
16. The long-term capital gains
tax of 2 per cent will remain un
changed.
Retail Trade
17. Goods on counters will be
of better grade'in 1949.
18. There will be many “mark
ed-down sales” of inferior qual
ity goods. Curbs on installment
buying will continue.'
19. The dollar value of all re
tail sales in 1949 should be about
equal that of 1948, perhaps off
5 per cent.
20. The unit volume of retail)
sales will be less in 1949 than in
1948.
Foreign Trade
21. Our foreign trade will re
main about the same. We shall
continue to help Europe; but it
will be on a more efficient basis.
22. More foreign credits will
be granted during 1949; but these
mostly will be direct to business
concerns.
23. There will be greater com
petition from other countries in
legitimate foreign trade where
the credit is good 1 .
24. Throughout 1949 war talk
will continue; but no real World
War III will start in 1949. War
preparations will continue.
Labor Outlook
25. Good business depends
upon two things: (1) reasonable
wages and (2) reasonable prices.
When both of these factors are
in balance there is good business;
but when they get out of balance
look for trouble. Low prices are
of little help when people have
insufficient wages with which to'
buy; but it is also true that good
Wages are of little use if prices
are too high for people to buy.
The Taft-Hartley Law will be
repealed or amended to encour
age free 'speech, union protec
tion and increased production.
26. The income of wagework
ers must increase before an ad
vance in prices. Contrariwise,
too high prices always precede a
decline in ' employment- and
wages. This downward cycle
leading to unemployment may
begin in 1949. Much depends
upon crops and weather.
27. Labor leaders who get in
creased wage rates usually get
re-elected, while those who do
not get wage increases are, li-
■able to - be defeated. ’ Hence," la
bor leaders have naturally kept
urging higher wages, although
they may feel in their hearts
that wages are high enough for
the time being. We forecast
that 1949 will see some change
of attitude in this regard and
that wise leaders will be more
interested in preventing the
“bust.” >
28. If wages are too high, or
ganized labor is the first, to be
laid off when business declines.
Unorganized workers have the
steadiest jobs and will go through
1949 without losing their posi
tions.
29. Some labor leaders will,
during 1949, work for pension
systems and sick benefits. This
would be a constructive program
for employers who can afford to
do it, but many employers can
not afford even these benefits
at this time. Both employers
and wageworkers will some day
THE COMMERCIAL BANK
member f. d. I. c.
DOUGLASVILLE, GA.
unite in urging a program Which
will give steady work throughout
the year. This is the best hope
for lower building costs. Brick
layers, painters and carpenters
are criticized today for doing
such a small amount of work, but
we must remember the many
days when they are unable to
work due to weather and other
conditions.
Inflation
30. Inflation . (high prices)
comes when consumption exceeds
production. This means that in
flation can be checked only by
increasing production or by re
ducing the money supply. The
job of getting prices down today
depends, therefore, upon what
management and labor produce
per hour. We believe that wage
increases during, 1949 will be ac
companied by a corresponding
increase in the per hour produc
tion of the wageworkers.
31. Some object to the large
profits that their employers are
getting today compared with the
1930’s. It, however, should be
remembered that during these
depression years most employers
had no profits whatsoever. We
forecast that profits will con
tinue to be regulated automati
cally by the law of supply and
demand, rather than by the gov
ernment.
32. At some time during 1949
we forecast that the point will
be reached where the nation’s in
flated money supply will have
become fully employed. Hence,
dmphasis may shift from efforts
to stop inflation to efforts to
halt deflation.
Slock Market
33. The year 1949 may not be
a better year stock market wise
than 1948. Investors will es
pecially get out of stocks of
companies which have most of
their assets.,in big, “vulnerable
in case of war” cities, reinvest
ing in companies whose assets
are well distributed and safe
from attack.
34. The administration will not
want the Dow-Jones Industrial
Average to go tod high on ac
count* of the consequent effect
upon labor’s demands. Com
modity speculation, will continue
to be curbed.
35. The wisest, will not try to
pick any special “winners” in
1949; but will diversify broadly.
Those who have too many stocks
will gradually build up good re
serves, in cash or governments,^
for the big break which will
come some day. Careful buyers
of stocks Will insist on'making
full payment and, a void horrow-..
ing during 1~949.
36. Safe dividend stocks will
be in greatest demand, especial
ly if double taxation on divi
dends should be eliminated.
Bonds
37. We are definitely bearish
on low-coupon-rate, long-term
taxable bonds as money rates
will gradually increase..
38. If Congress should exempt
dividends from double federal* 1
taxation, 1949 will see a further
falling off in the prices of cer
tain tax-exempt bonds.
39. We forecast no change in
the nation’s monetary policy re
lating to credit control and in
terest rates during 1949.
40. Investors will give much
more attention to diversification
in 1949 and will try to have their
bond maturities, either fairly
short or staggered.
Real Estate
41. City real estate will con
tinue to hold firm through 1949,
due to ‘ less available rental
space caused by pulling down
structures to save taxes, provide
parking spaces, etc. There also
is a disinclination to build new
city property in view of the
present high costs.
42. Suburban real estate will
continue in fair demand during
1949 although there will be some
shading of prices.
43. Big commercial farm acre
age will sell for less.during 1949;
but subsistence farms, \ located
close to established communities,
will hold up in price.
44. General building will de
crease during 1949 although the
cost of building may decline a
little. The quality of workman
ship will improve.
45. Both office and residential
rents will be higher in 1949. Only
as property owners are granted
higher rentals, will there be
enough houses to rent.
46. Mortgage interest rates
during 1949 will continue about
the same as in 1948. Any changes
will be toward increases.
Politics
. 47. The administration will en
courage legitimate new enter
prises and full employment, con
tinuing its loyalty" to labor and
the farmers.
48 Vacancies in the various
commissions and government
corporations organized since 1932
arid which have great powers
wilt be filled by men acquainted
with legitimate, business but
friendly to Mr. Truman,
49. Congress will take our for
eign policy out of the hands of
the State Department and the
Brass Hats. m
50. The administration will be
fair both to labor and manage
ment or lose the" congressional
Him Out the Old
an
• old
• fashioned
• greeting
. . . with a simple New Year
message of thanks for your
continued favors and a wish
for a Happy New Year!
J. THAD SMITH
FURNITURE—JEWELRY—APPLIANCES
PHONE 2631
DOUGLASVILLE
S ALES
10 Years Your GE Dealer
General Electric Appliances
APPLI ANCE S
J. B. WARREN, Inc.
Butane Gas Systems Installed
SERVICE
E. E. Byram, Douglasville,
LOCAL REPRESENTATIVE
