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PAGE 2 THE SOUTHERN ISRAELITE November 15, 1985
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Is Soviet policy changing?
by Wolf Blitzer
WASHINGTON—There is agree
ment in Washington that the Soviet
Union, at a minimum, has recently
shifted the tone of its policy toward
Israel. But whether or not this
easing of official anti-Israeli hostility
will continue to the point of a
formal resumption of diplomatic
ties between the two countries is
still unclear.
U.S. officials, who have monitored
the ups and downs of the Soviet-
Israeli relationship over the years,
warned in recent days that there
have been similar periods of optimism
in the past. But those earlier expec-
tions of a real change never ma
terialized. The same, they said,
could happen now.
What is apparent, according to
almost all knowledgeable sources
in Washington, is that the outcome
of President Ronald Reagan’s summit
this month in Geneva with Soviet
General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev
will have a very serious impact on
official Soviet attitudes toward Israel.
A successful summit—one that eases
superpower tensions—could have
a dramatic spillover effect on other
“side” issues, including Soviet policy
in the Middle East and the matter
of emigration visas for Soviet Jews.
That the Soviets are trying to
score some public relations points
on the eve of the summit is obvious.
This is true in connection with the
U.S.-Soviet arms control negotiations
as well as with other issues, including
the Middle East. This is especially
the case when it comes to the
Kremlin’s most recent statements
vis-a-vis Israel.
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The
Southern Israelite
Wolf Blitzer
The Soviets also have tried to
tantalize Israel and its many sup
porters in the U nited States, especially
in the American Jewish community
and on Capitol Hill, by holding out
the hope for increased emigration
for Jews. A few prominent refusniks,
for example, have been allowed to
leave in recent weeks, although the
overall number of exit permits
remains dismal. Harassment continues
unabated.
Clearly, the Soviet strategy is to
try to use Israel and the Jewish
community to put pressure on the
Reagan administration to warm
up the relationship—and to accept
certain Soviet policies -by holding
out this carrot of increased emigra
tion. From the Soviet point of
view, linkage in foreign affairs is
alive and well.
The thrust of Soviet Foreign
Minister Eduard Shevardnadze’s
message to Israeli Prime Minister
Shimon Peres during their brief
chat at a diplomatic reception in
New York was that a thaw in
Soviet-Israeli relations was indeed
possible, but only after the summit
in Geneva. “Let’s wait and see,”
Shevardnadze reportedly told Peres.
Other Soviet officials have pri
vately suggested that an Israeli
readiness to accept a more active
Soviet diplomatic role in the peace
negotiations—as was briefly the
case during the convening of the
Geneva conference following the
1973 Yom Kippur War—could lead
to restored relations at a later
point. But Israel wants the resumption
of ties to come first.
The New York Times reported
Oct. 26 that the Soviets were indeed
considering the exchange of diplo
matic “interest sections” with Israel.
That would result in the return of
Soviet diplomats to Tel Aviv, where
they would be based in a third-
country embassy, and the return
Israeli officials to Moscow, under
identical circumstances. Poland is
also said to have received the green
light for such limited diplomatic
ties as a sign of Soviet good will.
Hungary could follow.
But a willingness to permit direct
flights of immigrants from the Soviet
Union to Israel is also seen as a
critical litmus test of intentions by
Israel. The transit stops in Vienna
and Rome would thus be removed
from the scene and the propensity
for Soviet Jews to “drop out” by
opting for the United States, Canada
and elsewhere in the West would
be curtailed.
For Israel, the matter is very
significant. If the Jews come directly
to Israel, they presumably would
immediately be caught up in the
emotions of the Jewish homeland
and would also quickly discover
that so much of the official anti-
Israel propaganda fed to them over
the years by the Soviet state ma
chinery was not true.
But there are other conflicting
pressures on Moscow, especially
from radicals in the Arab world
with whom the Soviets are usually
on very good terms. The prospect
of large numbers of Jews arriving
in Israel is not very warmly received
in Syria, Iraq, South Yemen, Libya,
and, especially the PLO. For one
thing, the Jewish immigrants are
seen as future Israeli soldiers. The
possibility that some of them may
even settle on the West Bank is a
further irritant and embarrassment
—one the Soviets are very well
aware of.
Thus, one U.S. Sovietologist said,
it is by no means certain that the
new Soviet leadership of Gorbachev
and Shevardnadze will respond
positively to Israel’s pleas for
increased aliya and direct flights.
That same fear of an Arab backlash
against Moscow is behind the
Kremlin’s refusal to bite the bullet
and to restore diplomatic ties with
Israel. There are very powerful
countervailing pressures on the
Soviets preventing them from even
meeting Israel halfway.
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