Newspaper Page Text
Business as usual will cinch it
By JACK STAR
Copley News Service
k
NEW YORK - If a special
effort is not made soon, the
average family will have to
• pay more money for gasoline
and electricity, and will be in
convenienced by blackouts
and brownouts around the
• country. That is the opinion of
Herman Kahn, the portly
physicist and director of the
Hudson Institute here, a re-
• search “think tank.”
Although Kahn does not
share the panic of some about
the coming energy “crisis,”
• he is convinced that a “busi
ness-as-usual” approach by
government and industry will
certainly result in curtail-
• ment of electric power.
“One good hot summer and
a cold winter is all we need,”
says Kahn, referring to the
• energy demands created by
airconditioners and home
heating systems. This did not
happen in 1972 and early 1973,
• “but our luck can’t hold out.”
Kahn favors a national
crash program to develop
coal gas fuel from the over 200
• billion tons of soft coal which
lie not too far beneath the
ground in many states in the
western United States. He ad-
• mits that in days of tight bud
gets and pronouncements of
“fiscal responsibility” it may
be hard to find the $lO billion
• to sls billion required. Nor
does he minimize the resis
tance to strip mining of coal
by residents of the area and
• environmentalists.
Kahn, who enjoys teasing,
shocking and amusing his au
dience, tossed out some fig
‘ ures to the hundreds of execu
tives from the coal, oil and
utility industries who at
tended a one-day briefing on
‘ Synthetic Energy sponsored
by The Oil Daily.
They agreed that a price of
. $5 per barrel of crude oil
' would be a reasonable figure
for 1975; a price of about $6 a
barrel for 1980 and a price of
$7 a barrel in the period 1985,
‘ stabilizing in a price of some
where over $7 a barrel in the
period 1985 to 2000, not count
k ing inflation.
Having obtained the gener
al concurrence of his audi
ence, Kahn then said, “It
won’t happen. It’s a principle
’ of economics which you won’t
find in any textbook that any
widespread belief in that kind
of price rise is self-defeating.
‘ What you get is a sharper rise
(of prices) followed by a col
lapse.”
Kahn believes that, antici-
• pating higher prices, one of
the oil exploration companies
will gamble on a higher level
( of investment in offshore oil
’ drilling. “They will make a
bundle,” he predicts. Others
will join in later, overcapacity
. will result, and the price will
• then fall.
In the interim, U.S. expen
ditures for oil and liquefied
„ natural gas from abroad will
‘ be costing on the order of $25
billion a year, producing an
“unacceptable” problem in
t the balance of payments.
’ Such an outward flow of dol
lars would continue to disrupt
the economics of world trade.
, By making a massive effort
to develop coal gassification
technology and facilities
which would have the capac
, ity equivalent to one billion
barrels of oil a year, not only
would the outflow of dollars be
reduced, but it “tells the
, world you are serious in keep
ing the price at $5 to $6 a bar
rel.”
While Kahn thinks this is
, the best course of action to
keep the energy crisis from
growing, he doesn’t think it
will really happen. Instead, it
, will be business as usual, with
seed money provided by gov
ernment and industry for pilot
projects and the eventual con-
• struction of coal gassification
plants, over a much longer
period. This would mean, says
Kahn, dragging out a project
-for 10 to 15 years, which could
take half the time.
Recognizing the significant
political and economic hur
-dles, Kahn makes another
suggestion: pressure utilities
to switch from burning gas
and oil to direct burning of
'coal.
There are good economic
reasons. Kahn says that in
dustry and transportation
' sources insist that coal can
produce energy at roughly
half the cost of oil or predicted
costs of gas. A switch could be
• accomplished in a much
shorter period of time, but
again there are obstacles —
the resistance of utilities to
•make the switch, and the pos
ture of environmentalists who
are opposed to coal both be
cause of its higher levels of
i sulfur and the damage to the
environment of strip mining.
Kahn believes a compro
mise could be reached on air
pollution. Currently cities
(and government regula
tions) determine the level of
pollution of both a single
source (such as the smoke
stack of an electric power
plant) and the “ambient” lev
els of pollution, that is the to
tal level of pollutants from all
sources in an area.
If pollution of other sources
goes down (for example, as a
result of automobile pollution
regulations) then the pollution
levels of a coal-burning power
plant might still keep the total
level of air pollution within
reasonable levels.
Kahn is not alone in believ
ing that coal is the answer, not
only to the short-run energy
crisis but to the long-term en
ergy demand of the United
States.
Growth is not going out of
style, he says. “The median
family income is still below
$12,000 and those people
want to get richer. It seems
to be those families with two
dishwashers and three cars
who want to halt growth.”
But if coal is an answer,
what can be done to minimize
the damage to the environ
ment of strip mining?“ There
seems to be a lot of resent
ment against the coal indus
try.” Herman Kahn, the 50-
year-old physicist and direc
tor of the Hudson Institute
here, a research “think
tank,” is trying to explain the
resistance to the increased
use of coal as an alternative to
oil and gas in the worsening
energy crisis.
“At the turn of the century,
people hated the railroads and
the coal companies,” he re
lates. “Today, the railroads,
well they just get pity, but
coal is still hated. People
seem to think they are some
sort of monsters.”
That is the attitude which
has to change if the hundreds
of billions of tons of coal re
serves which lie 500 to 1,000
feet beneath the surface of
some western states can be
used as an energy resource.
The government may be able
to help, but the first step must
be taken by the coal industry.
On the surface, the issue is a
classic environmental one.
The most economic way to
mine the ore is to strip the soil
from the top of ore-bearing
strata, then bulldoze out the
ore. There are several prob
lems. Even though the areas
are sparsely settled, the peo
ple who live on that top layer
resent having their houses
and villages dug up and cast
aside. Strip mining leaves
deep, ugly scars on the land,
which can never be complete
ly reclaimed.
“It is foolish to think you
can restore the land to its
original wilderness state,”
says Kahn. “You can’t. But do
you have to?”
Kahn believes that if the
mining operation is undertak
en keeping in mind the needs
of the people who live there,
some of their resistance will
melt. “Although they say they
are worrying about the ecol
ogy, they are really con
cerned about two things —
maintaining their life-style
and having sufficient water.”
A futurist who seems to en
joy the controversy his bold
schemes inevitably evoke,
Kahn notes that “if these
people wanted to make more
money, they could go to the
cities of either coast and dou
ble their income. But they
don’t. They like the wide open
spaces.”
So the answer is not to move
satellite cities into the area;
nor is it to seize their property
by legal tactics of eminent do
main.
Kahn draws a parallel with
fire stations in Los Angeles.
“Everybody knew there had
to be a firehouse, but they all
said, ‘Fine. Put it in the next
block. Don’t put it next to me.’
“Then someone came up
with the idea of building the
firehouses like a regular-look
ing house, with a park area
that the residents could use.
Fire trucks couldn’t sound
their sirens or hit high speeds
until they are three blocks
away.
“Now you had a situation
where there was a desirable
park next door, and neighbors
who didn’t borrow anything.”
He laughed. “Pretty soon, ev
erybody wanted one.
“That’s what we have to do
with strip mining.”
Kahn suggests that brilliant
designers and planners be
called in, “not people associ
ated with engineering,” to
make the strip mine a better
neighbor.
Energy emergency
First, he says, the coal-min
ing companies are going to
have to demonstrate good
faith. He suggests they put up
a performance bond, to re
duce the temptation to make
promises, strip mine the area,
and then dissolve the com
pany to escape restoration.
Then, new forms of restora
tion will have to be provided.
He suggests such programs
as turning the area into parks
and recreation grounds, or
providing Disneyland-type at
tractions, or perhaps hunting
preserves. “They do a good
job of this in Germany,” he
notes.
Finally, the residents will
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have to be assured of ade
quate supplies of water.
Frequently, he says, local
interests and national inter
ests conflict. Here the nation
al interests for adequate sup
plies of self-sufficient energy
resources are in conflict with
the local interests of people
who want to be left alone.
“Sometimes the national in
terests lose and sometimes
the local interests lose. Here,
while we should make every
effort for accommodation, the
local interests must lose.”
Kahn does not really argue
with the cause of the environ
mentalists. “We have been
associated with the move-
ment for 20 years,” he af
firms. “I don’t want to wreck
the environment. But, some
times, you have to hurt it.”
With growing energy de
mands by the United states,
Japan, Western Europe and
the developing countries, the
alternatives to the use of coal
— growing dependency on
foreign oil supplies; serious
balance of payments deficits
which will keep the world
economies in turmoil; rising
prices of fuel — will eventual
ly become unacceptable.
Careful and innovative
planning could blunt the ad
verse environmental impact
to yield a valid compromise.
Page 15
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— Griffin Daily News Wednesday, June 20, 1973