Newspaper Page Text
SUNDAY, JANUARY 29,2012
Republican race
shifts to Florida
By Jennifer Sami
jsami@forsythnews com
For the 19th time. Republican presi¬
dential candidates gathered Thursday
night to debate the issues. And Tuesday,
it’ll be up to Florida voters, who are the
next to head to the polls this campaign
season.
Elaine Flowers, a Forsyth County res¬
ident and member of the local Tea Party
Patriots organization, said the many
debates have helped, but there’s more
Americans can learn about the remain¬
ing four candidates.
Flowers, who got asked a question
about illegal immigration during the
nationally televised South Carolina
debate, said the Florida event pushed the
issue further.
“I think they all have good points con¬
cerning immigration," she said. “But 1
don’t know that they definitely got their
plans down.
“We’ve still got a long way to go on the
debate, but I’m glad people are getting
more and more information on the candi¬
dates so we can make a good decision on
who is going to be the next president.”
Even though four hopefuls remain, area
experts and Republican leadership say it’s
really just a race between two.
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt
Romney and former Speaker of the House
Newt Gingrich are neck and neck in the
polls
“1 think it’s going to remain close,” said
Carl Cavalli, associate professor of poli¬
tics at North Georgia College & State
University. “Newt Gingrich is sort of rid¬
ing a tide of momentum right now, but
Mitt Romney is still hanging on. He’s not
falling by the wayside by any means.”
During the Jan.21 election in South
Carolina, Gingrich came from behind to
win the state with a clear 40 percent of
the vote.
Romney, who topped the field in New
Hampshire, came in second with 27.8
percent.
Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick
Santorum, who, after some clarification,
won the first battle in Iowa, placed third
in South Carolina with 17 percent.
U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas was sec¬
ond in New Hampshire, third in Iowa
and fourth in South Carolina.
Cavalli said Paul is unlikely to go
anywhere, even if he continues to reel in
fourth place finishes.
“1 think Ron Paul is the kind of candi¬
date that doesn’t have any expectation
of winning," Cavalli said. "His expecta¬
tion is to get his word out. So he’ll hang
around for a long time.”
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Ethan Underwood, chairman of the
Forsyth County Republican Party,
agreed.
“1 would be very surprised if Ron
Paul drops out until the convention," he
said. “His strategy is to stay in no matter
what.”
The situation would appear to be dif¬
ferent for Santorunt. If Florida doesn't
deliver a big win, he may not last as
long as Paul.
“If he doesn’t have a clear victory
sometime soon, he will drop out,”
Cavalli said. “Support will dry up and
he’ll effectively be a non-issue."
Underwood said Florida is a unique
state, with a conservative panhandle,
moderate central portion and a southern
part that’s “up for grabs” between a con¬
servative Cuban population and strong
Democratic wing.
“1 think Florida is going to shape a lot
of the elections that come up on Super
Tuesday,” he said.
Super Tuesday, which falls on March
6, gets its name for the many states,
including Georgia, holding caucuses or
primaries that day.
Beyond Florida, the details get tricky.
Gingrich and Santorunt will not appear
on the ballot in Virginia, so Cavalli said
other states are going to be more impor¬
tant to score a victory.
Failing to gather enough signatures to
get on the ballot in Virginia was not a
surprise, given Gingrich’s early cam¬
paign. Still, the candidate is playing
catch-up and it could hurt him in the
end.
“He was not a particularly serious
candidate this summer and in the fall
and that’s the time where you've got to
put together the organization to compete
nationwide," Cavalli. “I think he’s going
to pay the price for not doing that in the
upcoming primaries and caucuses.
“He did wonderfully in South
Carolina and he’s holding his own in
Florida, but 1 don’t think he’s got the
organization to carry it through the rest
of the nation.”
Yet Gingrich’s ability to stay afloat
won’t matter if Romney surges ahead in
Florida, Underwood said.
“If Romney has a big win in Florida,
then I think most folks will probably
start to say he’s the guy we need to get
behind,” Underwood said. “But if it’s a
tight race, then I’ll predict that the nom¬
ination won’t likely be decided until
Super Tuesday.
“Georgia is going to be vital on Super
Tuesday because several of the candi¬
dates are not going to be on the ballot in
all the states.”
forsythnews.com | FORSYTH COUNTY NEWS
Lecture series begins
with Middle East talk
By Jennifer Sami
jsami@forsythnews.com
When it comes to unrest in the
Middle East, Victoria Hightower sug¬
gests taking a wait-and-see approach.
“This is not maybe what everyone
wants to hear, but it is the best course of
action currently," said Hightower, an
assistant professor of history at North
Georgia College & State University.
“Because revolutions take time to
develop and even after new governments
are formed, they can still be sites of seri¬
ous contestation."
Hightower talked about Middle
Eastern realignment Thursday at the
Gumming Library.
Her presentation was the first of
eight topics in the third annual Great
Decisions weekly lecture series pre¬
sented by the college.
“This is the biggest crowd we’ve had,"
said Jon McDaniel, director of the
Forsyth County library system. “1 think
the word is getting out. Probably the
people that went before talked to their
neighbors, but it’s also a central loca¬
tion."
About 80 people attended the lec¬
ture Thursday, including Troy
University graduate student Jarrett
Cross. The “political science junkie”
was grateful for the opportunity.
“This is something they’d have at
either a graduate or undergraduate pro¬
gram and you’d usually have to pay for
something like this,” he said. “I think
this kind of gives, in a layman’s stand¬
point, everybody a little overall synopsis
of what’s going on in the world.
“It’s nice to get that insight... it’s nice
that they do this to educate and bring
people up to speed.”
Despite the broad topic, Hightower
touched on several uprisings around the
Middle East, including Egypt, Libya,
Tunisia and Yemen.
She talked about the revolutions and
the individual movements, as well as
what to look for as these countries work
to create stability.
But that status is not going to happen
soon, she said, particularly when divided
populations can’t reach a consensus on
how to rule or who should be in power.
“The future of Libya is uncertain and
it will be unstable for a good long
while,” she said. “Many countries are
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Jennifer Sami Forsyth County News
Victoria Hightower speaks to the
crowd Thursday during the Great
Decisions lecture.
going to devolve into a much longer
struggle than we would like, certainly
into civil war, and we’re seeing that hap¬
pen already in Libya. And it will happen
in Yemen, 1 have no doubt. And it's pret¬
ty close to happening in Syria.
“All this will result in a ripple effect
throughout the region.”
She talked about the growing role and
impact of women, which she said is
“cause for cautious optimism.”
Hightower’s lecture was based on top¬
ics set by the Foreign Policy
Association, a nonprofit dedicated to
inspiring the American public to learn
more about the world. Attendees were
able to purchase booklets that accompa¬
ny the lecture material.
For Vernon Kuehn, Thursday’s lecture
was a continuation of last year’s Great
Decisions. The lectures offer in-depth
information without undisclosed bias.
“When you leave here, you feel like
you’ve got the kind of picture of a part
of the world that if you can go there
yourself and study it for a while, you’d
come home with the same idea that they
share with you here,” he said.
The series will continue Feb. 2 with the
topie of cyber security.
Schedule
This year's Great Decisions lec¬
ture series is set for 6:30 to 8:30
p.m.Thursday nights at the
Cumming library branch, 585
Dahlonega Road.
Up next:
• Feb. 2: Cyber security with
Bryson Payne, professor of com¬
puter science and North Georgia's
chief information officer