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Rip van Winkle
had slipped into
his deep sleep 20
years ago and awakened today,
he would have missed a stunning
American revolution — a demo
graphic one.
The USA now is:
» Led by a biracial president
who will be sworn in Monday for
asecond term.
» More crowded (88 million
more people).
» More diverse (Hispanics
have surpassed blacks as the
largest minority).
» More urban (more than 80%
live in or near cities).
» More settled in the Sun Belt
(growth in the South and West
accounted for 85% of the gains in
the last decade).
Van Winkle probably would be
even more slack-jawed at the cul
tural upheaval before his eyes.
There are “childless ecities”
and even more childless neigh
borhoods because people are
having fewer babies.
There are more single people.
The median age of marriage is at
anew high (28.6 for men and 26.6
for women). More people are
living alone or with unmarried
partners, and less than half of
households are traditional hus
band-and-wife arrangements.
What may shock our folk hero
more: The latest Census data
count same-sex couples and peo
ple who are multiracial.
R e A R R Y P
g P 4 5 4 B S, . r .AN s
N vy m W'*( AT o,
6
USA WEEKEND - Jan. 18-20, 2013
More populated, by more different backgrounds,
the USA has reached a diversity “tipping point.”
BY HAYA EL NASSER
“What's constant in this coun
try is its ability to adapt — adapt
to people with changing back
grounds, people with changing
attitudes,” says William Frey,
demographer at the Brookings
Institution.
For most of the nation’s histo
ry, black-white race relations
have dominated. Now, the surge
in the number of Hispanics —
who can be of any race but are
counted as a group — has
changed the equation. So has the
rapid growth of Asians.
“But Hispanics really are a
very big part of America’s pres
ent and future,” Frey says. “And
they’re not clustered in one area.
They've been fanning out to all
parts of the United States, and
by moving into new parts of the
country ... they’re becoming ac
cepted by these communities.”
Fueled by immigration and
births to immigrants, diversity
truly is at a tipping point.
“When one demographic
COVER ILLUSTRATION: PHOTOMOSAIC* BY ROBERT SILVERS/WWW.PHOTOMOSAK COM FOR USA WEEKEND BASED ON PHOTOGRAPH BY CHi® SOMODEVILLA/GETTY IMAGES
group reaches one-third of the
population, the group — if united
— becomes very powerful and
large enough to affect the elec
tion outcome,” says demogra
pher Cheryl Russell, former edi
tor in chief of American Demo
graphics and now editorial direc
tor of New Strategist Publica
tions. “This is what happened in
the last election.”
Consider: Republican presi
dential candidate Mitt Romney
gained an unprecedented advan
tage among whites but lost large
ly by underestimating the politi
cal clout of blacks, Asians and
Hispanics, aceording to a Brook
a A closer look at our cover:
About 2,300 photographs
were used to make our cover.
See details at usaweekend.com.
- 5 ~.'°'&; g
W SA
L "k,
AN ' 3
ie Vo efi% i
ings analysis of the 2012 election.
President Obama carried those
groups by a margin of 80%.
“The role of minority groups,
especially Hispanics, has, frank
ly, shocked a lot of people when
they looked at the result of this
election,” Frey says. “People
thought this was going to happen
20 years from now.”
Change is happening fast. Just
since 2000, the percentage of
non-whites went from 31% to
37%. But among the under-45
group, share of whites will slip
under 50% in 15 years. Among
kids, it will happen in six years.
The way we live has been re
shaped not just by this growing
diversity but also by the aging of
the population and by the Great
Recession that the nation is
emerging from.
Average household size is at a
record low of 2.55 people. At the
same time, the number of homes
where several generations live
under one roof is going up — a
reaction to unemployment and
the housing meltdown.
Yes, crowded homes are up
and average household size is
down: It seems anything goes
today. There’s a hodgepodge of
living arrangements, from
grandparents, kids and grand
kids living under one roof to
same-sex couples, blended fam
ilies and living solo.
Even though the Millennial
generation that follows Gen X is
BT S S O s PRI e
]
SRS
Thidlh