Newspaper Page Text
THURSDAY. JULY 26. 2007 PICKENS COUNTY PROGRESS PAGE 13A
Continued from page 1A
Real estate slowdown reaches Pickens County
He said there have been
building permits purchased for
additional lots, many by “spec
builders,’' but those builders
haven’t broken ground. He men
tioned one builder who bought
six building permits in a new
subdivision to build some spec
homes (homes built for a buyer
to be found later).As of now, the
builder has yet to do anything
with the lots.
“Many of the builders we
talk to in this office are saying
the same thing, ‘there is a huge
inventory of lots already out
there,”’ Pope said.
Based on a rough estimate of
the growth rate during pre-slow-
down years versus the number
of available lots, Pope said there
is a three-year surplus of lots
here.
Pope said 90 percent of new
homes built in this county are
built in new subdivisions. That’s
based on building permits
issued. “It’s most definitely the
exception to see a young family
build on family land,” he said.
He said the Greater Atlanta
Homebuilders Association esti
mates there is a two-year supply
of available homes if no new
construction were begun across
the twenty-county metro area.
Ron Barnes with Prudential
Realty in Pickens County said
there has been a slowdown, but
it’s not like a bubble has burst or
there has been a collapse. He
said the real difference is the ris-
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ing number of lots added in
recent years.
From information Barnes
accessed using a multiple listing
service, in June of 2006, there
were 46 home sales with 536
houses listed with a the multiple
listing service in Pickens
County.
This year, there were still 35
home sales during June, but list
ings had climbed to 621 houses
offered for sale, according to the
listing service.
Pope, Barnes and other real
estate professionals attributed
the primary cause of the slow
down to a national trend of
declining home sales, but sever
al cited inflated land prices
locally as a specific cause in
Pickens County.
Maria Ashby, with Century
21 Best Mountain Properties,
said all real estate agents realize
there is a national trend toward
slowing sales affecting us here,
and agents understand the frus
tration of sellers who can’t
move their houses. But there is
only so much you can do locally
in the face of a nationwide trend,
Ashby said.
Pope said he does not try to
analyze national trends himself,
but does read and research what
analysts are saying. With this
slowdown, though interest rates
and inflation are at positive lev
els, national commentators talk
about “an apprehensiveness”
among home buyers and with
retail spending, he said.
“The slowdown is a direct
reflection of the U.S. economy,”
Pope said.
It’s also not the first time,
longtime builders, real estate
agents and developers have seen
a market cool off.
With 23 years of local real
estate experience, Margarette
Kown, of City and Country Real
Estate, said she’s seen trends
with ups and downs before, but
this one was remarkable for a
few reasons.
First, the up-swing, booming
market, has lasted twice as long
as most cycles, which Kown
says generally run about four
years. This time Pickens County
saw about eight years of robust
market before the “very notice
able slowdown” started about 18
months ago.
Kown, like Pope, attributed
most of the decline to a national
trend, but she said high land
prices here are a factor.
In all previous slowdowns,
Kown said raw land seemed to
dodge the bullet, but not this
time.
“This time it’s across the
board,” she said. “Normally,
even if houses slow down, land
always sold.”
She said now land prices
have reached a place where
average people can’t afford to
buy.
She predicted real estate
prices would drop back to 2005
levels. She said property priced
above 2005 levels may be hard
to sell. “Up until 2005, if you
put something out there, it
would sell,” she said.
Pope also speculated that part
of the slowdown here is related
to inflated property prices. And
he predicted prices will drop due
to the slowdown.
“The property prices are so
high that there are no starter
home developments,” he said.
“Everybody is developing sub
divisions for $350,000 and up
(per home),but how many peo
ple can afford this? It’s a limited
market.”
He noted that three of the
largest subdivisions in the work
ing stage or recently completed,
Little Creek Farms on Jerusalem
Church Road, Potts Mountain
tied to Big Canoe and
I Stoneledge on Matthews Road,
are all in this upper price range.
• Among the statistics supplied
■ by Barnes was a graph showing
1 the average price of a home for
| sale in Pickens County. That
average price has climbed grad-
| ually through 2006 and 2007,
edging up from $322,000 in
I January 2007 to $348,000 in
. June of 2007. The graphed aver-
* age home price shows a smooth
■ rising slope.
But a graph of the average
| price of houses that have actual
ly sold in Pickens County looks
like a mountain range full of
peaks and valleys with the aver
age price of a sold home hitting
$257,000 in January of this year
before dropping to $175,000 in
May and then moving up to
$206,000 in June.
However Barnes didn’t
believe that prices would drop
as a result of slower selling con
ditions. He noted the listing
service compares “asking price
to sell price,” and last year sell
ers were getting 97 percent of
the asking price. This year that
has only dropped to 96 percent.
“I don’t foresee a big dip in
prices,” he said. “People will
decide to hold their property
rather than selling it at a lower
price.”
Ashby said one factor slow
ing down high-end home sales
here is the dismal state of
Florida real estate. Homes there
aren’t selling, so Florida owners
can’t sell out to buy mountain
homes (as was happening previ
ously), and home prices here
have outpaced the local market.
“A big part [of the slow
down] is there are not that many
buyers here in the $300,00 and
up market,” she said. “And if
you can’t sell in Florida, you
can’t relocate.”
Upstream from the slow
down with lot sales, there has
been a corresponding drop in
developers looking to open new
projects.
This is the second consecu
tive month there were no rezon-
ings brought before the planning
commission. “I had some dis
cussion with developers about
future projects, but no plans are
being submitted,” Pope said.
“People in the development
community are saying ‘why
spend dollars now to add to the
inventory until it gets reduced
some?” he said.
One development representa
tive told Pope, his company may
do some preliminary work on a
Pickens project but would not
build roads until the market
adjusts.
Another development profes
sional, an employee of an
Atlanta company, said they
were putting on hold a project
they had recently re-zoned here,
until they sold some of their
inventory in the metro area.
Pope said there is no way to
know when the growth cycle
will reverse. Based on reading
what national experts are say
ing, there are two different
schools of thought, he said.
There is a chance housing and
construction will pick up in
early 2008, but if it fails to get
going then, it will almost cer
tainly be some time after the
November 2008 election.
Pope said based on his
research, Pickens will be among
the first places to pick up from
the slowdown.
“Previously when we’ve seen
slowdowns, Pickens was the last
to get hit and the first to recov
er,” he said. “Frankly, my
thought is there are still people
who want to escape the metro
area. And we’re still a relatively
close commute, so there will
always be people who want to
take advantage of metro without
living in a cookie cutter subdivi
sion.”
Kown, like Pope, said for
whatever reason, the market
may remain slow until after the
November 2008 election. “It has
nothing to do with real estate,
and I don’t know why it affects
a market, but it’s always slow
before a [presidential election]
and picks up afterwards,” she
said.
Pope and all realtors said
they were sure this was just part
of a cycle, not a permanent
change.
Pope emphasized that he
considers this “a blip on the
radar.”
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Yaarab Shrine Golf
Tournament
The 11th Annual Yaarab
Shrine Golf Tournament host
ed by J.W. Dobson, Greg
Dobson and Jeff Dobson took
place on July 21, 2007 at
Arrowhead Golf Course in
Jasper. The tournament was a
big success and a lot of fun.
We would like to thank all of
the people who came out and
played in our tournament with
a special thanks to our tourna
ment winners who generously
donated their winnings back to
the hospitals.
We would like to say
“Thank You” to Arrowhead
Golf Course and all of its
employees for their hard work
in making our tournament a
success. The Shriners depend
on the help from individuals,
as well as businesses in our
communities to be successful.
A special thanks to the fol
lowing businesses for their
sponsorships and donations:
Coca Cola, Jasper Drug Store,
Cherokee Shrine Club,
Cherokettes, Roper Funeral
Home, Pickens County
Progress, Lawson’s Home
Center, Lunsford Hauling,
Sosebee Funeral Home,
Holcomb Construction,
Grading, and Hauling, Jasper
Bank, Tyco, Amicalola
Commandery #41 of Knights
Templar, Palabora America
LTD. Moore Furniture, M&M
Contracting, United
Community Bank of Pickens
County and Lawson
Chevrolet.
All proceeds from this tour
nament go to the Shriners’
Hospitals for Children.
Shriners’ Hospitals for
Children is an international
hospital system with 18
orthopaedic hospitals, three
burn hospitals and one hospital
providing orthopaedic, burn
and spinal cord care, located
throughout the United States,
Canada and Mexico. All 22
Shriners’ Hospitals are dedi
cated to providing expert, spe
cialized care to children under
18 years of age absolutely free
of charge. Shriners’ Hospitals
are actively involved in
orthopaedic and bum research
and have been pioneers in
some of the most advanced
techniques for the treatment of
these conditions. If you know
a child that the Shriners’
Hospitals might be able to
help, please call us at 1-800-
237-5055 or talk to a Shriner.
Summer Clearance
Sale
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315 North Main Street
Suite 102
Jasper, Georgia 30143
706-253-3155
2/10 mile
north of courthouse
Since January 2005
1,540 lots have been
approved here,
but only 107 of these
have houses or
construction underway