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PAGE TWENTY-EIGHT
*IOO-°2OO-°3OO
on car financing
and insurance
through the
STATE FARM
BANK PLAN
‘m."fit Pk the
ear you wani-—mew o ased,
Then call me snd toll me how
snuch you need 10 oower Lhe ane
paid balance. I 8 hedp voew wup
all the detsdls and pet you =
check for the deader. The our w»
yours. Find oot todiay dew the
Bank Plha ca werk S you
TONY WILKIE
Your Stote Form Ageat
Phone 788-2017
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WHENEVER
the services of a funeral director
are required, families of all re
ligions may call Harwell's with
confidence . . . assured that we
will serve them well. We have the
: knowledge needed to serve those
of every faith,
] 9.C Harwell & S
] Lo Narw on
v o f FUNERAL HOME
- Ph. 786.2524
SO g TR S
et e AR
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FRIG IDAIRE PRODUGY OF GENERAL MOTORS
- .
Major Appliance Company
PHONE 786-2115 — 202 WASHINGTON ST. — COVINGTON
With All New Major Appliances Sold
Dec. 22, Friday and Dec. 23, Saturday,
WE WILL GIVE AN ELECTRIC MIXER
(Open Friday ‘til 9:00 p.m.)
(Our Advertisers Are Assured Os Results)
The National OQOutlook
BY RALPH ROBEY
The Problem of Business
Forecasting
Business forecasting, as
everyone knows, is tricky ani
dangerous. If one is correct it
usually is a matter of substan
tial luck; if one is wrong, it
does little good to attempt to
rationalize the error. But, in
spite of the risks, every busi
ness. and every branch of gov
ernment, has to have a fore
cast as a basis of its operation.
Nearly all of our large busi
pess firms, and many of mod
erate size, have special staffs
to carry on this work. The head
of this staff may be called the
economist, the director of re
search, or he may be a vice
president. This staff may pre
pare predictions on the econ
amy as a whole, or it may limit
itself to that portion of the
economic system which is of
particular importance to the
company for which it works.
Even these limited predictions,
however, normally are made
on the basis of rather firm
convictions as to what is going
to happen over-all.
In those organizations which
do not have a specialized staff, |
the work of forecasting is done
by the president and such fel
low officers as he thinks may
be of help. In both federal and
state government there are
budget officers who have _the
responsibility of comparing
outlays and possible income,
and in many instances these
men exert a direct influence
upon how much may be spent
and for what purposes.
Finally it should be men=-
tioned that we have many pri
vate organizations which, for
a fee make forecasts, both gen
eral and specific, for thew
clients,. And we have many
special letters put out by banks
and other institutions which
appraise the current trend and
indicate what they think is go
ing to happen. .
But in spite of how many
persons are working in this
field there is no standardized
methodology, and no person
or group whose opinion may be
taken as certainly correct.
Some rely solely upon statistics,
some insist that public psychol
ogy and political action must
be given rather heavy weigh*,
and some search for particular
bisiness series which always
precede the general trend.
Among the latter, the Na
tional Bureau for Economic
Research has been outstanding
This is a privately financed or
ganization which was set up
over a quarter of a century
ago, and it is known especially
for the care with which it stu
dies a problem and the high
scholarship which it always
maintains, For years this in
stitution has been comparing
individual statistical series with
the general business trend
Hundreds of such comparisons
have been made and out of this
total some eight were found
normally to lead, another eight
to be coincident, and the re
mainder to lag the broad eco
nomic trend. Most of the recent
respongibility for this work at
the National Bureau has rest
ed on Dr. Geoffrey H. Moore.
The series as a whole has at
tained widespread respect and
use by business forecasters, al
though no one acceots it as ne
cessarily infallible Further, the
preparation of these various in
dexes was an enormous job,
and in many instances the
figures were too late to be of
maximum value and service.
With a view of correcting
this tardiness, the President’s
Council of Economie Advisers
in 1957 requested the Census
Bureau to work with Nationa!l
Bureau of Economic Research,
and that has been done. The
results have been highly suc
cessful, and by the use of
large-scale electronic computers
the period of calculation has
been reduced to the minimum.
Julius Shiskin, chief econom
ic statistician of the Census
Bureau, was assigned the task
of seeing what could be done
to speed up the process, and he
has written a book describing
the series and its uses and lim
itations which is being pub
lished by the National Bureau.
In addition to U. S. Depart
ment of Commerce is starting
a new monthly publication
which will give a great deal of
statistical information whien
heretofore has not be available.
This does not mean that the
problem of business forecasting
has been solved. Far from it.
But at least, from here on, we
shall have figures which are
more complete and we ghall
have them faster,
My Neighbors
\-.x—\_'.g-!._
/L
N e aa s
R K\ J
3- h e 3\
‘ SO :
% =y D) C
B s
A\ et
“With five kids in school it’s
proved indispensable.”
To maintain their continuing
programs to improve company-'
owned forests, the 73 primary |
pulp and paper mills in t h e/
South spent a total og $34 mil- |
lion during 1960. ,
The pulp and paper com- |
panies in the South practice a|
multiple-use philosophy in the
woodlands they own. Currently
these companies have a total of
17.8 million acres of forest
land open to hunting and fish
ing.
Fearlessness 1s the mother of |
confidence. ‘
THE COVINGTON NEWS
Recent Cancer Victims Asked
To Aid Survey Planned by ACS
-
Newspapers, radio, television
stations, theaters and firmsl
employing ten or more people
are being asked by the Ameri
can Cancer Society to take part
in “an intensive educationa'
program to reach 4,250 Geor
gia men and women in whom
the best available medical fig
ures indicate cancer has start
ed in just the last six months.”
Arthur L. Montgomery, pres
ident of the Atlanta Coca-Cola
Bottling Company and chair
man of the Society’s Georgia
Division public education and
mass media program, poinis
out in personal letters to ex
ecutives that “our doctors tell
us at least one-half of these
new cancers can be cured if
treated while localized.”
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z: everybody, everywhere, we extend our sincere wishes for an
. ; ¢ o 4 2
old-fashioned Yuletide...warm with friendship...richly endowed
with happy memories...bright with promise for the future
...abounding with good health and good fellowship
..a season filled with deep and lasting joy.
. .
Member Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
COVINGTON GEORGIA
“For example, colon-rectai,l
Ibreast, uterine and skin can-1
cers were responsible for 82,-
000 deaths last year and wili
Istart new in 242,000 of thel
510,000 expected to develop
cancer in 1962. Yet nationwide
| cancers of these sites are being
leured today from 68 to 93 of
levery 100 times treated while
| localized and from 34 to 48
|even when there has been soma
| regional involvement.”
| “This appeal has nothing to
|do with fund raising. It is an
leffort to arouse our people this
| fall and winter to the disaster
|like danger of this threat that
| will invade two of every three
.| homes and one of every four
'| people alive today, at the pres
ent rate,” Montgomery said.
(Largest Coverage Any Weelkly Infl:l'ho Statei
He pointed out that caneer
killed 4,367 Georgians last
year, “four times as many as
| traffic accidents, twenty times
as many as tuberculosis.”
| “Only all types of heart dis
eases kill more than cancer,
{and the long, usually painful
‘land costly illness of incurable
| cancer is well known. The op
| portunities for individual ae
| tion to guard against untimely
'| death from cancer are greater
*lthan in the case of any other
I major fatal disease,” he said.
.l “The best safeguard is to ask
| your doctor for an annual phy
) | sical examination including a
' | colon-rectal examination, chesi
x~-ray for lung cancer, and for
)| women a breast and pelvic ex
| | amination including a ‘Pap’
3 | smear which ean detect uterine
- | cancer before any symptoms
|or manifestations appear”
| Montgomery said.
:‘ “Here are a few sobering
- | medical statistics:
© “Cancer of the breast killed
24,150 last year, will start new
in 63,000 in 1962, but is being
cured 82 of every 100 times
‘treated w! 'e localized and 48
even when some regional in
}volvement has occurred.
“Cancer of the colon and
reetum killed 39,000 men and
women last year, will start
new in 72,000 in 1962, but is
| being ecured 68 of every 100
}times _treated while localized,
| 46 even with some regional in
B s -
|e o e
| .. LET US SERVICE YOUR CAR !
‘;,\»“s We specialize in lubrication, car washing,
”"\Q and tire repair. We install tailpipes,
' f' )‘ brakes, and mufflers. ;
' 2, & TRY US TODAY!
| B 0 Fast and Efficient )\ =R
| 322 Rood Sevice B
| SN\ oad Jervice v o
|;, . R C.COOK EN= y
' Standard Service Station |AT
| Corner of Emory Street and Highway 278 “§ ‘/
|| Day 786-6313 Night 786-3805 ¥\~
e e
Thursday. December 21, 1951
volvement,
Cancer of the skin killed 4,000
last year, will start new in
1962 in 67,000 people and is
being cured 93 of every 100
times treated while localized.”
Montgomery = said volunteer
| workers in County Units of the
| American Cancer Society have
| been asked to work harder this
'lfall and winter. than ever be
| fore “because if we do not the
| chances of needless loss of life