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SUNDAY, MAY 31. VALUE OF FORECASTING HIGH WATER AT AUGUSTA The Auqusta District of the River and Flood Service of the Weather Bureau Or qanized Shortly After the Great' Freshet of ’BB THE SERVICE TODAY IS REMARKABLY PERFECTED Predictions Are of EspeVial Value to Farmers, Lumber men, Stockmen, Steamboat Companies, Etc., Along the River. When in 188 R r grout freshet broke upon Augusta the muddy waters of the restless Savannah flowed through the streets of the city for the first time in nearly a quarter of a century and were of greater depth, velocity, and destrue- JqJK HOTELS J4ARIEANTOINETTE NEW YORK BROADWAY AT 66th STREET A high-grade hotel con ducted on the European plan at moderate prices. Subway at the hotel en trance — Broadway surface cars and Fifth Avenue bus pass the door. WOOLLEY & C RRANS, Prop.. A. M. Woolley, M|t. j Alio Proprietors HOTEL IROQUOIS. BeifaU, N.T. ff jR j © 7%4/ty^ 4 WECIAy / \ i<T ~~ w -■ ' Xui#:* ..r^ There’s as much difference between Dan Patch Special Horse Feed and the thousand ana one fancy named mix tures as there is between Dan Patch and a “plug.” # Dan Patch Feed Is composed of choicest osts, corn, alfalfa meal and Louisiana cane molasses, made by our exclusive hot process. No indigestion, so com- j non when cold mixetl feeds are used. Tones up the i animal. Prevents disease. Effects a saving of Vb’jb j to 20% on your feed bills. WE ALSO MANVFA CTVKB International Horse and Mule Feed International Poultry Peed ! International Jewel Molasses Feed International Cow Food International Jewel Hen Feed Happy Jack Male Feed Sold everywhere. Ask oar Distrihvtor (or name of nearest Dealer. International Sugar Feed No. Two Co., MEMPHIS, TENNESSEE. Augusta Grocery Go. cZgia' Wholesale Distributors. GRAND OPENING ———————i LAKE VIEWCASINO Monday. June Ist 1914. GolMein Musical Comedy Co. 16 PEOPLE, Refined High Class Attraction. TWO SHOWS NIGHTLY. 7:30 and 9:15 P. M. USUAL MATINEES five force than at any time since the flood of 1796. Fear of the water had disappeared, and its .full possibilities as a destroyer of life and property had be come a mere tradition dimmed by the passing of many years. The freshet of ISBB, however, impress ed upon the public mind a conviction of the necessity for some means of protec tion, and that there might be opportun ity to safeguard life and movable prop erty the Augusta district of the River end Flood Service of the Weather Bu reau was organized in 1892 to give warn ing of the approach of dangerously high water. > Valuable Records. Since 1892 there lias accumulated a valuable series of dally rainfall observa tions for the Savannah river watershed above Augusta, and an earnest effort has been made to obtain from the data a scheme for the forecasting of river stages at Augusta as accurate and com plete as can be devised. Since the rises are flashy, sometimes being very sud den, river-gage reading at points above are usually of little avail, and estimates must be bused upon the relation between the average rainfall over the catchment basin and the stages normally resulting therefrom under the existing conditions. Such a scheme can not be expected to give absolutely accurate results in every instance but tests have shown a degree of accuracy thfft meets every practical requirement. Predictions of high-watar stages have been made for Augusta for a number of years, and frequently with considerable accuracy and success, but in some in stances the warnings preceded the flood crests by so few hours that their useful ness was greatly impaired. This feat ure was one of the first to receive my at* LADIES LISTEN For Experienced Hairdressing Phone 2621-J or 928. Save your combings and do not send your work out of the city Have work done by one of most experienced lady hair dressers in South —Mrs. J. Will Ergle, 502 West Avenue. North Augusta, S. C. All work sent for and deliver ed. Satisfaction guaranteed. tention three years ago in my effort to make the work more effective, and it enn •tie confidently stated that the possibili ty of the development of dangerous river conditions without ample and timely warning has been fully eliminated. Precautions Against Surprises. With 9 stations outside of Augusta telegraphing each inch of rain as It falls during the day, each half inch or more for the 24 hours ending at 8 a, m., and special reports whenever requested, the river forecaster Is at all times In possession of the detailed information necessary for the proper performance of his duties. Additional security from sur prise Is afforded by placing nearly all of the instruments in the hands of tele graph operators, who can telegraph re ports even at night if an emergency should require it. * Nearly all of the river forecasts are for the information of farmers, lumber men, steamboat companies, and engineers and contractors engaged on government or municipal developments along tin; riv er. Only on rare occasions does It be come necessary give warnings of stages dangerous to Augusta itself, but occasionally tlie river rises high enough to cause apprehension. Whether the de sire for information is inspired by a pre diction of actual danger or merely by a general feat* of danger, every effort is made to secure and disseminate the most reliable information obtainable. Prediq tiona are made for ail stages above 18 feet. Excellent opportunity during the past two years to observe tho river under nearly all possible conditions has sup plied much experience that was needed! to point out some facts not made suf ficiently clear by the abstract study of tlie records. This experience has in deed been so useful that it seems war rantable to complete tlie work of putting the forecast scheme in permanent form Complicated Problems. In the South, where snow and ice are almost unknown and never accumulate to any extent, the forecasting of high river stages from reports of precipita tion is comparatively simple. The ques tion in each instance resolves itself inlo the determination of the probable effect of tlie average rainfall over the water shed as indicated by telegraphic reports from selected stations. The chief difficulty arises from vary ing absorption by the ground, according to its degree of dryness and the rate of rainfall. A very dry or only slightly moist soil often absorbs so much rain, even when the amount is considerable, that the immediate effet upon the river is negligible. General heavy downpours on dry ground might conceivably result in a rapid run-off of water and a conse quent material rise in the river, but rains of this Intensity usually come in the summertime and are characteristical ly so local that their simultaneous oc currence over all or a large portion of the catchment area, which embraces 7,- 294 square miles, is a very remote pos sibility. Freshets of magnitude take place in the Savannah river at Augusta only after the ground in the upper reaches of the stream has become sat urated. Water from the more distant portions of the watershed also complicates the problem, for when the rainfall covers two or more consecutive 24-hour periods on the second and subsequent days an al lowance must be added for the volume from the distant streams. In summer another uncertainty is Introduced by the erratic distribution of the showers of that season. Development of the River Forecaet Scheme. It is intended to discuss first the ef fect upon tlie river at Augusta of rains within a 24-hour period, then the effect of rains extending into 48-hour and long er periods. This discussion is based for the most part on records for the 24 hours ending at 8 a. m., but in some cases when it was evident that the ac tual 24-hour rainfall covered the obser vation hour the records for two dates were combined. Flood crests usually reach Augusta in from 18 to 30 hours after the receipt of the rainfall telegrams. The distribution of amounts has much to do with the rate of rise and the time of arrival of the crest of the rise, though, as has been intimated, it has little effect on the mag nitude of the ultimate stage. Reporting Stations. The consistency in the relation be tween the rainfall averages and the river stages in all hut a few instances dem onstrates that the six or seven reports used give true averages for the water shed. To provide against the repeti tion of the few unreliable averages, however, additional stations were estab lished in July, 1912, at Camak, Ga., Edgefield, S. C., and Glllsville, Ga. A balanced horizontal distribution of frain fail stations has always been maintained with a somewhat greater number on the Georgia side on account of the greater number and greater importance of the tributaries there. River gage readings are reported from Carlton, Ga., on the Broad river, and Calhoun Falls, S. C., on tlje Savannah river. Normal Rise. The natural supposition Is that the higher the water In the river becomes tiie less will be the effect of a given por tion of the total amount of rainfall in producing any further Increase In depth. Beyond a certain river stage, which may he conservatively placed at 29 feet at Augusta, this is true of the Savannah river. When the soil is moist at the outlet the normal rise from stages under 18 feet, remains near 8.5 feet for nek inch of average rainfall over the water shed in 24 hours until the 29-sot stage Is reached. In a few instances the rise for each inch of rain has exceeded n feet, hut 8.5 feet gives an excellent working basis for forcastlng purposes. A partial explanation of this persist ency of rise Is, (hat the ground absorp tion reduces the rise at lower stages to such an extent as to counterbalance much of the retarding effect of tho In creasing width of the stream and the accelerated velocity of Ihe current at higher stages. / Additional explanation Table From Which high Water Can Be Accurately Forecasted at Augusta _ 4 TABL E XI. Sra(?p" normally resulting In the Suvnnnah river at Augusta, Os., from rainfall over the watershed, after deducting from sveruge rainfall an allow ance for ground absorption and after adding 30 per cent of previous day’* average for upper section minus absorption. | Initial Stages. Italnfall aid resulting stage*. | X.OO 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00 5.50 | s feet ...10.5 ijo! 3S? 2!M> ill ti.f 34.4 15.5 36.6 37. i 1 9 feet ...17.5 21.8 26.0 29.5 31.4 33.1 34.5 35.7 36.8 37.8 10 feet ...18.6 22.8 27.0 29.8 31.7 33.3 34.7 35.9 37.0 37.9 H feet ...19.5 23.8 28.0 .30.2 32,0 33.5 34.9 38.1 37.2 38.1 12 fct6 ...20,5 24.8 29.0 30.6 32.3 33.7 35,1 36.3 37.4 38.3 13 feet ...21.6 25.8 29.4 31.0 32.7 34.1 35.4 36.5 37.6 38.5 14 feet ...22,5 26.7 29.7 81.4 33.1 34.5 35.7 36.8 37.8 38.7 15 feet ...23,0 27.5 30.0 81.8 33.5 34.9 36.0 37.1 38 0 38.9 16 feet ...23.5 27.9 30.2 32.0 33.7 35.0 36.2 37.2 38.1 39 0 17 feet ...24.0 28.2 30.4 32.2 33.9 35.1 36.3 37.3 88.2 39.1 18 feet ...24.4 28.4 30.6 82.4 34.0 35.2 36.4 37.4 38.3 39.2 19 feet ...24.8 28.6 30.8 32.8 84.1 35.3 36.5 37.5 88.4 39.3 20 feet ...25.2 28.8 81.0 32.8 84.2 35.4 36.6 37.6 38.5 39.4 21 feet ...25.6 29.1 31.2 32.9 34 4 35,6 36.7 37.7 38.6 39.5 22 feet ...26.0 29.4 31.4 33.0 34.5 35.7 36.8 37.8 38.7 39.6 23 feet ...26,4 29.6 31.6 33.1 34 6 35.8 36.9 37.9 38.8 39.7 24 feet ...26.8 29.8 31.7 33 2 34.7 35.9 37.0 38.0 38.9 39.7 25 feet ...27.2 30.0 31.8 33.4 34.9 36.0 37.1 38.0 38.9 39.7 26 feet ...27.6 30.1 31.9 83.5 34.9 36.1 37,2 38.1 39.0 39,8 27 feet ...28.0 30.2 32.0 33 6 85.0 36.1 37,2 38.1 39.0 39.9 28 feet ...28.5 30.3 32.1 33.7 35.1 36.2 87.3 38.2 39.1 39.9 29 feet ...29.0 30.5 32.2 33.9 35.2 36.3 37,4 38.3 39.2 40.0 30 feet ...30,0 30.7 32.5 34.1 35.3 36.4 37.5 88.4 39 3 40.0 31 feet ...31.0 31.6 33.1 34.6 35.8 36.9 37.9 38.8 39.6 40.2 32 feet ...32.0 32.5 33.7 35.1 36.3 37.3 38.3 39.1 .39.8 40,5 ,33 feet ...33.0 33.4 34.3 35.6 36.7 37.7 38.7 39 4 40.0 40.7 84 feet ...34.0 34.2 34.9 36.1 37.1 38.1 39.0 39.7 40 3 40 9 35 feet ...35.0 35.0 35.5 37.5 37.5 38.5 39.3 40.0 10.6 41,2 35 feet ...36.0 36.0 36.9 38.3 37.9 33 9 39.6 40,3 40.9 41.4 FHE AUGUSTA HERALD. AUGUSTA, GA. is found in the fact that tho percentage of run-off from the faster rate of fall of larger amounts of rain Is enough great er than the percentage of fun-off from the slower rate of fall of the smaller amounts of ruin, to materially assist in giving, for the larger amounts, the same average rise in feet per inch of rain, with h gh resultant stages, as re sults from smaller amounts with lower stages. Effect of Fainfall Distribution on the Height of tho Flood Crest. In selecting stations that are to report rainfall for rivarstage forecasting it is of the utmost importance to maintain at all times a. consistent horizontal distri bution. This does not mean that the stations should he equidistant, for in such an arrangement the dVnlnag* areas of major importance would lie given tlie same weight as relatively ins gnlficnnt areas. Over basins drained by larger and more numerous streams more stations should be placed than over those of less er importance in accumulating and dis charging the surface run-off from rain fall. This work properly and thorough ly done disposes of the.question of rain fall distribution so far as the importance of one station over another is concerned and incidentally eliminates from the problem all consideration of topgrnphy and other physical peculiarities of a per manent character. When il is stated that the drainage basin of the Savannah river above Au gusta must be divided into two sections, from one of which the crest reaches Au gusta in from 18 to 24 hours and from the other in about 40 to 48 hours, it is at first difficult to see why the stations in the section above Calhoun Falls should be given the same individual weight In computing the rise 1o sea. ex pected from a 24-hour rain as are the stations over the area from which the crest reaches Augusta in much less time. However. experimental forecasts in which the upper stations are ignored nearly always result in a decided loss of accuracy. It appears that the run-off from heavy rains in the upper section of the water shed supports the water in tlie ne glihor ing portions of the streams, and, by pre venting it from flattening out, contrib utes indirectly to tlie ultimate stage. When there is no such support, the max imum stage at Augusta is lower In pro portion to tlie deficiency of precipita tion in the upper section. When pre cipitatios is decidedly heavier in the up per section than in the lower, its volume is sometimes sufficient to continue tho rise beyond tho usual time and givs a crest higher than that indicated by the average rainfall for the watershed. Such an occurrence is somewhat rare, but it may be anticipated by adding to the average for all stations 39 per cent of the difference between the average for tho upper stations and the average for all stations. From what has been said It is obvious that when general rain falls over the Bfl.van.nah Valley the stage to be predict ed can be determined without applying to the average rainfall any modification other than an allowance for nhsorptlon by the ground. This is true even though there he wide differences in tho amounts at the various stations. Summer Showers. Frequently, however, summer showers do not distribute themselves generally over the watershed, and th run-off from wide areas may be either insignificant or entirely lacking. They follow no rule such as has been explained for general rainfall, and it is always necessary to determine as nearly as possible to what extent the distribution Is erratic. When the rains have fallen long enough before the receipt of the reports for the water to have taken effect at Carlton and Calhoun Falls, the river readings at those points are very help ful. It has also been found of as sistance to utilize the reports from cot ton reg ! on reporting stations. A knowl edge of general meteorological condi tions ns shown by the daily weather map and an understanding of the significance of those conditions are required. The above-mentioned aids in deter mining the character of the distribution are, however, merely supplementary to the following rules, which have been as certained fey practical experience, though the river-gage relations are often of al most equal importance and are some times tlie main deciding factor. Those rules are applicable only to er ratic summer thunderstorms. 1— When the average rainfall is two inches it is vefy rarely advisable to re duce the estimate on account of Irregu larities 1n dlstributon. 2 When the rainfall averages 1.50 inches or somewhat less: (a) When only 2 stations in 10 have less than 0.50 Inch the distribution should he considered general and no allowance made for erratic distribution. (b) —When 3 stations In 10 have less than 0.50 inch allow three-fourths to full value, after making allowance ft* ground absorption. (c) —When 4 or 5 stations In 10 have less than 0.50 Inch allow for a rise of only one-half value, unless 2 or more of the other stations have 3 or more inches of rain, when the estimate should he three-fourtliH to full value, In the discre tion of the forecaster, after making al lowance for ground absorption. Before closing the subject of rainfall distribution It may he well to mention the fnet that when one or two stations In the upper section of the watershed report 3.50 to 5 Inches of rain that is apparently local In character the heavy downpours arc at times of sufficient ex tent to cause a moderate rise that cul minates In Augusta in 40 to 48 hours. In order to antlelpato such rises. It is nec essary to have the river stations report stages at 5 p. m. and the next 8 a. m. “Both Safe; Coming Home.” Milwaukee, Wie. —"Both safe; com ing home.” This was the wording of a tele gram received today from Henry Free man, of West Allis, Wls., who with hiH wife, was ahoard tho Kmpress of Ireland. Tho Freeman's had been listed among tho second cabin pas sengers missing. To Navy and Army. Washington—Senator Whlto of Ala bama, today announced tho appoint ment of Myron Dllon , Birmingham and Eric M. Orinsley, Fayette, mid shipmen at the naval academy, and Horace Harding, Tuscaloosa and Ju lian K. Miller, Montgomery, cadets at the military academy. Light Weight Six—Built by Men Who Know Enters Its Second Year With Colors Flying / *J a HE severest tests that any car ever faced, and a full season’s service in the hands of hundreds of owners all over America, did not develop a single mechanical weakness in the Chandler Light Weight Six. The one and only change in the 1914 model is found in its beautiful new stream-line body, —unbroken, unmarred graceful lines from the bow of the tonneau to the tip of the hood. % Sensation of the Season’s Auto Shows All eyes are on the Chandler. It has been the sensation at every big Auto mobile Show this winter. And for good reasons. Here is a Six that gives 16 miles, or wore, to the gallon of gasoline—runs 700 miles per gallon of oil—averages 7000 miles per set of tires —does 3 to 55 miles per hour without shift of gears—climbs every famous demonstrating hill between the Pacific and the Atlantic on high—pos sesses every high-grade feature found on high-priced sixes weighs only SPETH GARAGE AND SALES CO. 930 ELLIS STREET. CHANDLER MOTOR CAR CO., Manufacturers, Cleveland, Ohio S 7 RIVERSIDE k; r NAVAL ACADEMY jgh IDEAL VACATION PLAN FOR A BOY. The combination of wholesome recreation out of doors with a mod erate amount of reading, or if the hoy his been deficient In school, a certain amount of sys tematic study. Riverside Hummer Naval School ii nd Camp Is the only In stitution of Its kind in the South that has IT. S. Government recognition and equipment. Cadets live In barracks or In (ents as preferred. The last ten days will be spent in camp st wrlgbtsvllle Beach, N. C. Session begins June 30 end continues eight weeks. Illustrated Calling on Rrqurd. RIVERSIDE NAVAL ACADEMY Box 37, Galncivlllr, Ga. Ice, Fruit, Vegetables,Groceries % I wish to announce tin* opening of my new store, whore I am prepared to attend promptly the wants of my patrons. ICE -in large or small quantities, delivered free. Just phone 1846. FRUIT—aII kinds of choice ripe fruit always on hand. Free delivery. VEGETABLES—a complete line of choice fresh vegetables. Any thing to be had in the Augusta market, delivery. GROCERIES —Complete line of staple groceries. Free delivery any where. CHICKENS and EGGS —Fresh every day. Tt is to your interest and mine that you phone me before making your purchases. All goods delivered free to every part of the city. J. L. RADFORD PHONE 1846. 15 EAST BOUNDARY. ' il I l I 1%. li i • Special Kates for the Summer Months STARTING JUNE IST Palin Beach Suits Frenrh Dry Cleaned, Steamed and preased .. ROO Men’s Suita jSC Two or three-pieced Ijtdlos Skirts KQC up Coat SuitH *IQO UP Cadies' Panama# 50' : anitTRC Men’s Panamas S 0 ( ’ Straw Huts I 2RC You are at no risk to trust us any of your favorite articles. All work handled by experts. We guarantee all of our work to be tbe best. A trial order will convince you. German Hat Company and French Dry Gleaners PHONE 1247 J. 680 BROAD 2885 pounds, on the scale —rides the bumps like a boat —and sells for $1785. You can’t buy more in any six, except need less weight and needless up-keep expense. Come see the Chandler. Exclusive Chand ler long-stroke motor. All parts quickly accessible. Perfect, constant lubrication. Silent imported chain drive for cam shaft, pump and generator. Westinghouse sep arate unit electric starting and lighting sys tem. Complete equipment, including Bosch High Tension Magneto. Wheel base 120 inches. Roomy bodies in four styles. ANNUAL SUMMER REDUCTION SALE Trunks, Batjs, Suit Cases. Etc. ~——:.ar»nr -f-sue f f—iussri (Matting and Cane Cases and Bats, 39<: up.) AUGUSTA TRUNK FACTORY 735 BROAD STREET. OPPOSITE MONUMENT. 7