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TIME FOR OPTIMISM AGAIN?
Georgia's labor commissioner, Michael
Thurmond, has seen the effects of the reces
sion up close and personal. His agency han
dles the applications from laid-off workers who
are filing unemployment claims, makes sure
those jobless benefits are paid, and tries as
best it can to match the workers to whatever
jobs might still be open. The labor depart
ment also records the monthly unemployment
statistics that only seem to be getting worse:
from the state's 9.2 percent rate in March to
9.7 percent in May and 10.1 percent in June.
In the midst of this gloom, Thurmond
thinks there are signs that the worst recession
in more than 70 years may finally be bot
toming out. He bases his optimism
on the recent trends in applications
filed for jobless benefits. Over
the past eight or nine months,
the number of initial unemploy
ment claims filed with the Labor
Department has been skyrocket
ing. These applications increased
by 174 percent last December,
111 percent in February and 126
percent in March. That meant a lot
of Georgia-based businesses were lay
ing off people as the economy was reaching a
low point not seen in this country for several
generations.
The trend started to level off somewhat
after the peak increases during the December-
March period, Thurmond noted. The monthly
increase was 58.9 percent for July, the first
time since last November that the increase
was below the 60 percent level. That's not rea
son to celebrate, but Thurmond believes the
declining growth in jobless numbers is a sign
that fewer people are becoming the victims
of corporate layoffs. "Fewer people are being
laid off," he said. "The problem is, if you don't
have a job, you're still going to have a hard
time finding a new one."
There are other indications that suggest
our state's situation is at least getting less
bad, if not better. Take a look at the monthly
numbers compiled by the Georgia revenue
department, which show whether tax collec
tions are increasing or decreasing. The report
for July was still in negative territory, with
overall tax collections decreasing by 9.6 per
cent, sales tax collections dropping by 9.7
percent, and individual income tax revenues
down by 8.4 percent. The July numbers were
still an improvement over the monthly results
from earlier in the year when, for example,
revenues dropped by 34.8 percent in February
and 20.6 percent in April.
I would not suggest that the hard
times have ended. State Sen. Jack Hill
(R Reidsvilie), a savvy legislator who under
stands the budget as well as anyone in
the General Assembly, recently esti
mated that Georgia's revenues could
decline by 8 percent or more dur
ing the current fiscal year. That
is not as bad is the fiscal year
we just wrapped up, but it would
still require some extensive cut
backs in the state budget to keep
it balanced.
The best way to handle those
badly needed budget modifications
would be for lawmakers to come back
to Atlanta for a special session this fall and
decide which programs could be cut with the
least harm to Georgia's citizens. Unfortunately,
political courage seems to be in short supply
these days. The legislative leadership has not
made a move toward calling a special session
and has, in effect, told Gov. Sonny Perdue to
cut the budget however he wants. It would be
great if Georgia had a political leadership with
the intestinal fortitude to make the hard deci
sions that are needed at a time like this, but
we'll have to scrape by with what we've got. I
don't know that I'm as optimistic as Michael
Thurmond, but I hope he's right about the
possibility of an economic recovery.
Tom Crawford
Tom Crawford is the editor of Capitol Impact’s Georgia
Report, an Internet news service at www.gareport.com.
Tilt MMMM W«ILI by TOM TOMORROW
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6 . FLAGROLE.COM- AUGUST. 19,2009 ..
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