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The Braselton News
Wednesday, July 26, 2023
Opinion
Demographic shifts will have long-term impacts
Ill a recent presentation to the Jefferson City Council, city
planner Jerry Weitz gave a brief comment about how the nation’s
changing demographics could eventually affect the local housing
market.
Indeed, numerous think-tanks, real estate professionals and
others have projected exactly what Weitz told the council: That
at some point in the future, generational
changes and demographic shifts could
greatly alter the current framework for
housing demands, making much of today’s
housing stock obsolete.
The nexus of this shift is that the
mike
buffington
Millennial Generation (1981-1996) now
out-number Boomers (post WWI-1964).
Just as Boomers transfbnned society,
culture and economics in the 1960s and
1970s, Millennials are now transforming
tiie nation, creating trends that portend a lot
of changes by 2050.
•••
That may well be the case, at least for another decade or two.
But even Jefferson isn’t immune to the river of social change that
these demographic shifts will bring.
For one tiring, the demographic changes have implications that
go far beyond just housing. Employment, for example, will also be
affected by both generational shifts and technology advancements.
How working from home, AI and industrial automation all impact
long-tenn economic activity Iras yet to be seen.
Another demographic shift is the increasing diversity of
Americans and its implication for tire political climate. By 2050,
nonwhite ethnic and racial groups will make up a majority of
tire population. That shift could mean a more blended nation
with increased multi-ethnic families, or it could also mean more
political and cultural conflict. When polled, 50% of Democrats
tend to think these ethnic shifts will be a good tiring while 37%
of Republicans think they will have a bad impact. To air extent,
demographic shifts are already influencing state and national po
litical dialogues, driving “white fear” with projections of a “great
replacement” of whites by other groups.
•••
hr housing, that trend is starting to come
into focus. During their reign as tire nation’s largest demographic
group, Boomers expanded house and lot sizes, driving suburban
sprawl. Now as Boomers retire and die off, that housing stock
will increasingly become available. While many Boomers want to
age in place in existing homes, some seek to downsize to smaller
houses on smaller lots.
But those who follow demographic trends say that while there is
a shortage of housing in the country, Millennials may not be ready
to buy those larger Boomer-built houses as they become available
on tire market.
Said one recent Brookings Institute article:
“Even for millennials that can afford to purchase a single-family
home, homebuying is likely a bad investment, since the current
supply of single-family homes does not match tire desires nor the
arrangements of millennial households.
“All this means that while young people battle over the few
available homes that suit their needs and preferences, older adults
will be unable to sell their homes to tire emerging generation
of would-be homeowners. Even putting aside the generational
mismatch in preferences and geographic location, the basic math
does not bode well for the housing market: Seniors exiting the
market will greatly outnumber young homebuyers, leaving 15 to
18 million surplus homes on the market. Most of tire homes left
will be large-lot, multi-bedroom homes—precisely tire type of
housing stock that markets in major metropolitan areas continue to
oversupply.”
Among tire trends driving this shift is a change in family struc
tures with more single-parent households, few of whom can afford
to buy tire larger-sized houses. Said the Brookings report:
“Tire real estate industry — operating under restrictive zoning
compacts — is still catering to tire traditional nuclear family
household by continuing to systematically undersupply small units
(particularly one-bedroom units) in favor of constructing large
single-family homes.”
•••
While these broad trends are clear, their impact on a given com
munity are not. hr addition to demographic trends, there are other
factors also happening.
For one, there is a great migration happening in the nation as
people increasingly leave tire Northeast and move South and
Southwest. While tire Northeast part of tire country Iras been the
nation’s historic heartland and main economic engine, that is
changing as both personal and industrial investments move south/
west. Bloomberg reports that there has been a S100 billion wealth
transfer from North to South.
That could mean that while there are broad changes in tire
nation’s overall housing market, migration will bring in wealthier,
traditional-family Millennials to tire South that will, for a while,
absorb much of the existing Boomer housing stock in this area.
A couple of people at that Jefferson meeting suggested that the
local community would remain a traditional housing stronghold
due to its strong school system that will attract young families
seeking larger homes on larger lots.
All of this will prove to be a challenge for policymakers at all
levels of government.
hr housing, should local governments continue to zone for large
homes on large lots, or should there be more accommodation for
smaller, more affordable dwellings that cater to Millennials and
non-traditional families? And iflocal communities don’t develop
a diverse housing market of various price points, where will low
er-income support services come from?
At the state level, should there be more emphasis on health
care priorities as tire population ages and if so, will that mean a
redistribution of resources away from other priorities, such as
education? Many Boomers already want their property taxes
lowered by cutting what they pay in school taxes; will Boomers
also demand more health care from tire state which could also cut
into education funding?
For tire federal government, should the Social Security
retirement age go up to help stave off a cash crunch, or should
current workers pay more in Social Security to help fund Boomer
retirement?
• ••
There are no clear answers to Arose questions. For one thing, we
don’t know what we don’t know.
Tire demographic changes impact on politics also isn’t clear.
Some studies suggest that the concentration of minority popu
lations will be in urban areas and that will limit liberal influence
given how Are Serrate is selected by states and not population. That
could mean Arat while some liberals have predicted a shift in Are
nation’s political culture due to more minorities. Are Serrate is like
ly to remain in conservative hands, thus limiting any real national
move to the left.
• ••
I don’t have a crystal ball, but based on these trends and similar
trends around Are world, we are probably entering an era of
increasing sociaEpolitical conflict. Large shifts in human social
structures generally don’t come easily.
And we aren’t Are only nation experiencing large shifts in
demographics. Japan and some European countries are already
seeing a huge rise in an elderly population and a decline in young
er working-aged people.
Given how closely-linked we are to international trade, these
shifts are bound to ripple in our economic system as well.
There’s not much we can do as individuals on Are national or
global scale to affect how demographic changes will happen. But
at the focal level, we do have some impact on how our communi
ties’ set policies and priorities.
What we do today isn’t just for today, it will have a lasting im
pact on the community for generations to come. And just because
someAring worked in Are past doesn’t mean it will work in the
future.
If there was ever a time for focal governments to be thought
ful about their policy decisions, now is that time. Tire long-tenn
unintended consequences of making Are wrong choices now could
echo for generations to come.
Mike Buffington is co-publisher of Mainstreet Newspapers. He
can be reached at mike@mainstiveMews.com.
Jacques Bergerac
* «?
loran
smith
While I am not a pack rat, I tend to hang on to anyAring that
can be filed away. Then I forget where I filed it or the name of
the folder which has treasured flashback content. Then one day
when rumbling around, like on a lazy weekend in winter, I come
across a file that brings about a link to a vignette of yesteryear.
During the time of Richard Tardits—if you are a genuine
Bulldog fan, you likely recall Le Sack—
the defensive end who walked on in
the mid-Eighties and set the UGA sack
record which Davey Pollack later broke.
When Richard was the incumbent
Bulldog sack specialist, I made a trip
to his hometown of Biarritz which is
anchored by the Atlantic in the heart of
Basque country just a few miles north of
Spain.
In Biarritz, I was the guest of Den
nis LaLanne, who was a well-traveled
sportswriter whose boyhood hero was
UGA’s Spec Towns who won the Olym
pic high hurdles in Berlin in 1936.
At one point, LaLanne covered the four Grand Slam tennis
tournaments, Aie four golfing majors, every major sporting
event in France and was well connected across the world. One
year at the British Open a friend of his, Dennis Machenaud,
who was the editor of a popular magazine, “France Golf,”
sat beside me. The seat assignment officer, mistook Athens,
Georgia for Athens, Greece and placed me in Aie “international
section.” LaLanne wanted to cover the Masters and needed an
introduction to Augusta National officials. Machenaud asked for
assistance which I was happy to do, recommending LaLanne to
Augusta press executives.
That led to decades of LaLanne coming to Athens and
spending the better part of a week with us. He would host me in
Biarritz for a week before the British Open in July.
Golf, the best in food and wine, introductions to each other’s
friends along with long conversations about multiple subjects
of mutual interest became our summer lifestyle. I took him over
to see Spec Towns, who lived three minutes from where I live.
“A highlight of my life,” he said afterwards, misty eyed and
humbled. “When I was a boy, I had Forrest Towns’ picture on
my wall.”
He told me about his friend Jacques Bergerac with whom
he was writing a book. Bergerac, had moved from movies to
business and headed up Revlon’s Paris office.
While searching for notes about LaLanne last weekend, I
came across a file about Biarritz and recalled a brief telephone
conversation with Bergerac which LaLanne arranged.
LaLanne subsequently gave me an outline of the 21
chapters of Bergerac’s rags-to-riches memoir, “A Table at
Romanoff’s.” He and LaLanne were promoting their book at
the time. We were to meet up for lunch in Paris, but schedule
issues complicated plans which I regret.
Bergerac was a shepherd’s son from the countryside near
Biarritz. He was spotted by an MGM talent scout in Paris,
and enjoyed a nice Hollywood career becoming a French
heartthrob for movies such as “Gigi,” and “Les Girls.” Amer
ican movie fans took to Bergerac as well.
Bergerac went from obscurity to dining with film leg
ends at Romanoff’s, “the hottest spot to see and be seen in
Hollywood.” The book was an insider’s recall of an aborted
fisffight with Humphrey Bogart, drinking sessions with Errol
Flynn and a friendship with Ronald Regan and “romances
with some of the world’s most beautiful and desired women.”
A review of the book described the times as those when
movie stars were “not flesh and blood but gods and goddess
es.” In a scene, described early on in the book, Bergerac is
at Romanoff’s at a table which included, Gary Cooper, Ava
Gardner, Alfred Hitchcock, Humphrey Bogart and Ginger
Rogers who would become his wife.
Bergerac knew Clark Gable, star of “Gone with the Wind,”
as a “regular guy who preferred hunting, fishing and other
outdoor sports to treading red carpets and signing autographs.
Gable chose to live on a ranch in Beverly Hills in what had
come to be called ‘the Valley. ’ Clark Gable was a natural,
something rare in a world where dreams were manufactured
for safe. His equal would never be seen again.” At dinner,
hosted that night, by Gable, Bergerac was seated between
Ava Gardner and Lana Turner, “arguably the best seat in the
house.”
“Despite the star power surrounding me, my presence
didn’t go unnoticed. Ginger and I had become an item, and
the press had been having a field day, to a pitch that would
not be seen again until the marriage of Marilyn Monroe and
Joe DiMaggio,”
Later in the evening an inebriated Bogart tried to pick a
fight with Bergerac until the Frenchman invited the aging
actor outside. Bogart backed down.
Finding these notes from time spent with LaLanne, made
me realize that I have a treasure trove of lasting memories in
my basement office from a lifetime of travel. If I could just
put my hand on such vignettes when I need to.
Loran Smith is a UGA commentator and columnist for
Mainstreet Newspapers.
The stories
we own (Part l)
Everyone has a story. Or many stories. Every per
son, uniquely, owns a piece of history.
A cherished friend of mine was a helicopter pilot
during Vietnam. Twice, his helicopter was shot
down in the midst of battles.
As it is recorded, that was a
horrendously uncivilized war.
I have never known anyone
who fought in those jungles,
who was not scarred mildly or
severely.
Then there’s my friend, Sue,
who grew up in jail. In the
1950s, when the South was in
a turbulent time between the
beginning of the Civil Rights
movement and the Dixie Mafia
reign, Sue’s father was a county
sheriff. The family lived in the
back of the jail so, firsthand, she saw some of the
South’s most notorious criminals. The small insights
she gave, filled in bits of history here and there.
Daddy’s first cousin, J.C., was captured twice
during World War II. Once by the Italians when
his plane was shot down off the Italian coast. He
and two buddies managed to escape, after several
months, only to recaptured again. This time, by the
Germans.
For many years, he would not talk about those
years in captivity.
“Don’t you dare ever ask him about it,” Mama told
me firmly. She knew my curiosity and that I liked to
dig into stories.
But one day, when he had retired from teaching
and grown gray with age, he began to talk. I stopped
by to see him once to ask a question about his par
ents and, there in the living room of the nice brick
house that he and his wife, Jessie Mae, had built, he
began talking of those war years. He spoke not with
graveness but with a lightness and, at points, a sense
of humor.
In Germany, he was confined to Stalag 13.
My eyes widened. “Stalag 13? As in the television
show, Hogan’s Heroes?”
He shrugged. “Well, I don’t know about a TV
show but I know that’s where I was.”
He told a remarkable story. In the prison garbage,
the POWs had found some pieces of electrical wires
and bits of light bulbs and such. After hiding them
in their barrack, they figured out how to connect the
pieces and pick up a radio signal. They listened to
war correspondents who told how the Allies were,
systematically, disposing of Germany and Italy in
various battles.
“Of course, the Germans were telling us how they
were winning the war and conquering the world,”
J.C. said. “We’d laugh behind their backs because
it was just a matter of time before America won and
we’d be free. We never had a doubt.”
When the war did end, as predicted, with the Al
lies declaring victory, America had a policy regard
ing our POWs: “First in, first out.” This meant that
the earlier a soldier was captured, the quicker he was
returned home.
J.C. Cannon was on one of the first POWs ships
that sailed for America.
The number one question I’ve been asked over the
years is: “I want to write a book. How do I do it?”
It’s this simple: Sit down and record verbally or
by hand, the same stories that you tell around the
table at a family reunion or sitting on the porch, are
the ones to record. The language doesn’t have to be
fancy or proper grammar. It needs only to be real in
the way you experienced it. Personally, I prefer the
authenticity of mountain language or Jewish words.
Tell it like you’ve always told it.
Some stories hurt. Don’t add more pain. Some
are historic. Share the importance. Some are funny.
Save the punch line for the end by building to it.
Of course, some stories -owing to the characters
involved - are funny throughout. The biggest laugh,
though, should come at the end.
And then, there is fiction, a world of its own. We’ll
discuss that next week.
Ronda Rich is the best-selling author of the new
mystery St. Simons Island: A Stella Bankwell Mys
tery.
The Braselton News
Mike Buffington Co-Publisher
Scott Buffington Co-Publisher & Advertising Manager
Ben Munro Editor
Taylor Hearn Sports Editor
Wesleigh Sagon Photographer/Features
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