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HOUSTON DAILY JOURNAL
Options for the long war
It isn’t irony, it’s history,
our immediate history,
where what we choose
to do - or not do - will have
extraordinary effects on the
course of this challenging
century.
Still, the week of the 65th
anniversary of Japan’s sur
prise attack on Pearl Harbor
was a historically profound
moment to consider what
the military calls “courses
of action” in Iraq and the
Global War on Terror. It has
been a week of “strategic”
leaks. The Baker-Hamilton
Iraq Study Group dropped
hints, then The New York
Times published Donald
Rumsfeld’s classified “good
bye memo” containing
Iraq war options. On Dec.
4, The Wall Street Journal
discussed Chairman of the
Joint Chiefs Gen. Peter
Pace’s “study group,” which
is considering other alterna
tives.
In an interview that
appeared in the Philadelphia
Evening Bulletin, John
McCain supplied a pithy
reminder for all engaged
in the debate: “... in war,
my dear friends, there is no
such thing as compromise;
you either win or you lose.”
The Pace group
recommends more military
forces in Iraq (focused on
Baghdad). It may view Iraq
as a peacekeeping problem.
The Journal wrote that
Pace’s group sees a U.S. pull
back as triggering “more vio
lence” and making “political
compromise impossible.”
Rumsfeld’s memo is a
hodgepodge of ideas at least
two years old. I found three
exceptions.
He suggests embedding
Iraqi troops in U.S. units
to train them (a Korean
like Katusa program). He
suggests the United States
might provide security only
in provinces that request
U.S. help and adds an “accel
erated 2007 drawdown”
option - which looks like
a drawdown and re-basing
proposal considered for the
2009 time-frame.
How does global warming impact you?
By Susan Varlamojf
University of Georgia
What does global warm
ing mean to you? State cli
matologist and University
of Georgia atmospheric
sciences professor David
Stooksbury answers ques
tions on climate change in
Georgia.
How will global warm
ing affect Georgia?
We don’t know. The mod
els ddn’t do a good job of pre
dicting climates on the local
scale or predicting extreme
climate events.
What we do know is
that Georgia has cooled
down slightly (0.1 degrees
Fahrenheit) in the past 100
years. I think this is the
result of Georgia’s going
from primarily row-crop
agriculture in 1900 to for
est.
Today, 60 percent to 70
percent of Georgia is for
ested, and we think transpi
ration of water vapor from
the trees has caused a drop
in temperature.
Can we link high car
bon dioxide levels to
Earth’s warming?
We have the highest car
bon dioxide levels in geologi
cal history. Atmospheric sci
entists have been sending up
two weather balloons daily
nationwide since 1948, and
we see no trends for warm
ing or cooling in the bottom
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The Baker-Hamilton
report became available this
week. Its leaks suggest a
“diplomacy-led” option, with
a publicly broader inclusion
of Syria and Iran. Publicly is
an impor
tant word,
because
“back
channels”
have been
steadily
engaged.
All three
studies
lay the
ground
work for
establish-
||||: JL >
Austin Bay
Military Affairs
Creators Syndicate
ing a bipartisan U.S. com
mitment to finishing the job
in Iraq and - by implication
- this century’s long war for
modernity. Democrats now
have leadership stake in
determining U.S. policy, and
the process of policy recon
sideration gives them cover
for slipping the critic’s role
and assuming leadership
responsibility.
The three “strategic leaks”
consider how “best to fight”
the war.
Precious time, lives and
treasure will be wasted if
debate sidetracks on “when
to fight.” Like Dec. 7, 1941,
we’ve got a war, like it or
not.
Arguably, after Khomeinist
Iranians sacked the U.S.
Embassy in 1979, the United
States tried to delay a war
on Middle Eastern tyranny
and terror. Sept. 11 changed
that.
The radical Sunni war on
the West (as expressed by
al-Qaida’s precedents) has
roots in the 19405. (Read
Lawrence Wright’s “The
Looming Tower,” which I
will review in a couple of
weeks).
Our enemies have long
time lines. They see the
United States through the
templates of Vietnam and
Somalia (bug-outs), not the
template of sticking out the
Cold War.
But our “course of action”
must account for others’
half of the atmosphere.
The measurements show
ing Earth is warming are
taken on the surface. We’re
just not sure of the feed
back loops and what part is
human-induced.
If sea levels rise global
ly, will the Georgia coast
be flooded?
Along the Georgia coast,
any change in sea level will
have catastrophic impacts
because of the shallow
nature of our coastal waters.
Around the world, we don’t
see uniform changes in sea
levels.
The local sea level is modu
lated by local geological pro
cesses. Two important such
processes are local uplift of
the earth’s surface and the
deposition of soil from the
continent.
On the global scale, ice
melting in the sea doesn’t
cause a sea level rise
only ice on land, such as
Greenland. We know the
North Pole is melting, but
the South Pole ice sheet is
increasing. These problems
are complex.
Can we expect hurri
canes like Katrina to hit
Georgia?
Yes! Major hurricanes
have struck Georgia in the
past and will in the future,
regardless of climate change.
We hear about hurricanes
only when they hit land, so
this year we’ve had little
capabilities as well as our
expectations. In August
2004, I had a conversation
in Baghdad with a U.S.
Army officer - an Arabist
with a diplomatic back
ground. He was tasked with
helping Iraqis establish an
operations center. I asked
how that project was going.
“They’re doing the best they
(the Iraqis) can,” he replied,
thoughtfully. “(They’ll be
running it) in their own way,
not like us.” Translation:
What they can achieve is not
on our schedule.
President Bush insists on
achieving this strategic goal:
a self-sustaining, free Iraq
that is an ally in the War on
Terror. That is an achievable
goal.
Columnist Michael Barone
likens Bush’s determination
to that of Harry Truman
confronting the Korean War
or Winston Churchill after
Dunkirk.
These are dramatic analo
gies, but our situation is not
nearly as desperate. We’ve
had big successes. Iran is sur
rounded, Syria hemmed, al-
Qaida shot to shreds. Given
the ideological and political
dimensions, a more apt anal
ogy is Ronald Reagan’s 1983
“Euromissile” struggle.
The Soviet Union gam
bled it could to “decouple”
Europe from the U.S. nucle
ar umbrella; it waged a war
of perception in the United
States and Western Europe.
America was the aggressor.
Reagan was evil, a Hitler, a
warmonger. Reagan focused
on the strategic goal of
winning the Cold War and
deployed U.S. missiles to
counter the Soviet missiles.
The Kremlin broke nego
tiations in a huff, but within
two years returned to seri
ous disarmament talks.
The road to 11-9 (Nov. 9,
1989, when the Berlin Wall
cracked) is history.
To find out more about
Austin Bay, and read features
by other Creators Syndicate
writers and cartoonists, visit
the Creators Syndicate Web
page at www.creators.com.
news.
In the 1800 s, Georgia had
six category 3 or higher hur
ricanes. Thousands of people
were killed. We’re overdue
for a major hurricane. But,
as I said, our models can’t
predict when.
How does burning fos
sil fuels fit into global
warming?
It’s very complex.
Atmospheric carbon diox
ide caused by burning fossil
fuels has increased since the
1750 s and especially since
1945. Global temperatures
have increased during the
same period.
However, there isn’t a sim
ple, one-to-one relationship
between carbon dioxide in
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LOCAL
Why do we love our parades?
I first noticed it about a
decade ago.
It was mid-morning
on a crisp Autumn day. A
man pulled in front of our
newspaper office, got out of
his truck, jumped into the
bed and set up a lawn chair
with a cooler next to it. He
then sat down in the lawn
chair facing the main drag
in front of our office and
popped open a cold one.
“What in the heck is that
guy doing?,” I said to myself
and to anyone without ear
shot.
He just sat there and sat
there and sat there.
Finally, my journalistic
curiosity kicked in and I
went outside to find out
what was up.
“Excuse me, sir,” I said to
the man as he surveyed the
passing traffic. “What are
you doing?”
“I’m waiting on the
parade,” he said between
swills.
“The parade? You mean
the Homecoming parade?”
“Yep,” he muttered, or
perhaps it was a burp.
I paused, looking down at
my watch, baffled.
“It’s 11 o’clock,” I said.
“The parade doesn’t start
until 2.”
“Yep,” the early bird
replied. “Wanted to get a
good seat.”
He wasn’t the only one.
By the noon hour, the high
way in front of my office
was lined with people in
lawn chairs and on tailgates
- waiting on the parade.
It was then I realized that
folks in my community love
parades.
Our county only has
7,000 residents, and I
would estimate every one
of them, and then some
more, line our streets annu
ally for our Homecoming
parade. This year, I saw
more of my classmates
from my graduating class
along the Homecoming
parade route than I did at
our reunion - which was
held that night.
I often wondered what
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SATURDAY, DECEMBER 9, 2006 ♦
travellers going down our
main highway on a fall day
at noon thought as they
saw people just sitting on
the side of the road, watch
ing cars passing by.
“Look, Margaret, these
people down here in South
Georgia must not have cable
yet. They
have to
watch
cars pass
by for
enter
tain-
ment.”
For
years,
I have
thought
that this
was a
,-0
Hkl . ~c ...IS?-; . a
Len
Robbins
Columnist
phenomenon of my commu
nity only - a rich tradition
of loading up the extended
family and waiting on the
roadside for four hours to
watch a 40-minute auto
cade.
Not so, I learned the other
night. I had a book signing
in Blackshear at Country
Bumpkins Gift Shop. The
signing (for my new book,
“The Greatest Book Ever
Written About Cheese” -
available in fine bookstores
everywhere) was slated to
begin after their annual
Christmas parade.
I had to park three blocks
away. Their Christmas
parade consisted of every
beauty queen and busi
ness and church and fancy
truck in the tri-county area
- just like ours. And I bet
the streets were lined with
folks for hours, wanting “to
get a good seat.”
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Why are parades so
beloved in small towns? I
live in one and don’t really
know.
My best guesses are as
follows:
1. Free candy.
Most parades I’ve been
to involve the throwing of
free hard candy from the
procession’s participants to
onlookers on the side of the
road, which has to violate
some type of ordinance or
safety code. Being hit in
the head by a Jolly Rancher
thrown from a moving vehi
cle - even one going five
miles per hour - can be
smarts.
But It is free.
2. People like funny
trucks.
Parades often involve
trucks dressed up in some
fashion - which some folks
apparently find amusing.
3. In addition to free
candy, parades are also
free.
Unlike cable, which
should be free, they don’t
charge you anything to
watch the parade.
That said, PTA meet
ings and public hearings on
civic matters are free too,
and nobody seems to go to
those. Maybe if we called
them “parades,” more peo
ple would show up.
Hmmm.
So, please make plans
now to attend my next Book
Signing Parade - coming
soon to a tailgate or lawn
chair near you.
(In case he didn’t mention
it, Len Robbins is the author
of “The Greatest Book Ever
Written About Cheese. ”)
Enjoy the
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