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Will Obama play
Inside the numbtrs
am,
Hi
Matt
Towery
Morris
News
Service
For president-elect
Barack Obama, the
time has arrived to
make his first big decision.
And no, it’s not if Hillary will
be in the cabinet.
Obama used every possible
political trick in the book
to both secure his nomina
tion and then trounce John
McCain in the general elec
tion. Who can blame him?
Politics is a contact sport.
And for the last few weeks
it appeared that Democrats
were far enough away from
their goal of a 60-member,
filibuster-proof U.S. Senate
that there would be nothing
gained by the president-elect
getting his hands dirty and
actively campaigning in the
only U.S. Senate runoff in the
nation - that of incumbent
Republican Saxby Chambliss
vs. Democratic challenger Jim
Martin in Georgia. But now
circumstances have altered
the political landscape, and
Obama must make a choice.
Alaska’s longtime sena
tor-turned-recently-convict-
ed-lawmaker, Ted Stevens,
has been defeated by his
Democratic rival. Meanwhile
in Minnesota, comedian
turned-Senate candidate
A 1 Franken has magically
whittled a 700-plus lead
by incumbent Sen. Norm
Coleman down to a precari
ous few hundred vote lead
with a contentious recount
still to come.
That means that former
Georgia Democratic state
Rep. Jim Martin could poten
tially supply the Democrats
the magic 60th seat in the
Senate.
I served with Jim in the
Georgia Legislature in my
prior life as a partisan elect
ed official. We were from sep
arate parties but got along
fine. He i& a good man and
has a sharp mind. He’s also
fairly liberal arid is not a par
ticularly magnetic candidate.
He won’t win without direct
help from Barack Obama.
Meanwhile, Sen. Saxby
Chambliss, who I have also
known for years, is a super
nice guy who has a laid-back
style. Unfortunately, it was
too laid back in his gener
al election battle. He was
unable to crack the required
50 percent plus one vote rule
required to win outright in
Georgia.
Here are some key compo
nents of this race that most
in the media don’t know.
First, the good news for the
Republicans. Chambliss has
his act together for the run
off. The various Republican
entities allowed to contribute
to electing him have raised
nearly $4 million devoted
to absentee and early voter
efforts - something that
was totally ignored by the
Chambliss campaign in the
Nov. 4 contest. Over 1.1 mil
lion voters, all of whom vote
Republican in Georgia, have
been mailed absentee bal
lot info or reminders that
they vote early. And in areas
where early voting is occur
ring, the demographic make
up of the voters seems to
favor Chambliss.
Second, the bad news for
Republicans. Georgia is not
as big of a Red state as in tjie
past. Because of a foul-up in
reporting the votes, most of
the nation saw numbers that
suggested John McCain had
carried Georgia by over 60
percent. Not true. When the
large metro-Atlanta counties
reported, McCain dropped to
barely 52 percent statewide,
and Obama proved a strong
47 percent.
The Obama organization
has somehow claimed that
they should stay out of the
Georgia race for myriad rea
sons, including that the pres
ident-elect might “lose politi
cal capital” if Martin goes
down following an Obama
visit. They also point to a
similar runoff situation in
Georgia in 1992. That’s when
president-elect Bill Clinton
came to the state on behalf
of incumbent Sen. Wyche
Fowler, only to then witness
Fowler losing to the late Sen.
Paul Coverdell in the runoff.
But what most don’t real
ize is that the Clinton tran-
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in Georgia?
sition, unhke Obama’s, was
a disorganized mess. By
the time Clinton came to
Georgia, his approval ratings
had dropped substantially
(only to rise again after he
became president).
Obama has no baggage. In
fact, an Insider Advantage
survey shows that Obama’s
approval rating has soared
in the Peach State and is
comfortably in the sixties
percentile level.
Jim Martin’s only real
hope is that Obama comes to
Georgia and attends one of
his massive rallies and sends
every person there off to the
polls to vote.
The question is just how
badly does the new president
want a Democratic Senate
that can pass whatever it
wants, without the threat of
Republican filibusters to stop
vote.
No risk, no reward. My bet
is that he doesn’t take the
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WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 26, 2008
risk and Chambliss keeps his
seat.
Matt Towery served as the
chairman of former Speaker
Newt Gingrich’s political
organization from 1992 until
Gingrich left Congress. He
is a former Georgia state
representative, the author
of several books and cur
rently heads the polling and
political information firm
Insider Advantage.
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