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After months of posturing by candidates, millions of
miles trekked by volunteers and oceans of ink spilled by
pundits, the 2010 midterm election campaign ends today.
Ftor many analysts, the game is only just beginning, and
the outcome of American votes gives rise to many possi
bilities: social, economic, and of course, political.
So you’re not lost as results come in tonight, The Red
& Black presents your guide to today’s election.
-Robbie Ottley
Senate Races
RED & BLACK
PROJECTIONS
Democrats: 51
Republicans: 49
GEORGIA
Isakson (R) v. Thurmond (D),
incumbent: Isakson (R)
Safe Republican
A graduate of ______
the University
and member of ':/
Congress since Ilf m
1999. Johnny I
Isakson won his
first term in the BraMT.. J§
Senate by a ■■
margin of 58
percent to 40 ISAKSON
percent. He is
widely expected to win his second
term by a similar margin over
Democrat Mike Thurmond, the
Georgia Labor Commissioner.
WEST VIRGINIA
Raese (R) v. Manchin (D),
Incumbent: Goodwin (D)
Tossup, tilt Democrat
Democrat Robert Byrd, the oldest
Georgia’s Next Governor?
Deal (R) v. Barnes (D), Incumbent:
Perdue (R)
Lean Republican
The Georgia gubernatorial race has
been surprisingly competitive this
year. With incumbent governor
Sonny Perdue
began with a Hg_
r ary a E , a L ly BARNES
favorite John
Oxendine faded
as further ethics questions came to
light, and an August runoff pitted
former Secretary of State and Sarah
Palin-endorsed Karen Handel
against former Congressman
Nathan Deal.
After his victory in the runoff, Deal
POLITICS: Most voters find middle ground
► From Page 1
“The reason that the Republicans
in Georgia took over is because the
Democrats in Georgia did not gov
ern," she said. “People began to see
that the Republicans had good ideas
and did have a plan for America.”
Everhart said her party takes
nothing for granted, but members
expect big gains in today’s election.
“There are some people in this
country who are mad at both parties,
but they do see us as the more sen
sible party,” she said. “Right now, the
Republicans are the party of hope.”
And both parties’ hopes may hinge
on tonight’s results after this year’s
census. Georgia is projected to pick
up a Congressional seat, and which
ever party wins the governor’s race
will play a huge role in redistricting.
“If we don’t get the governor’s
office, redistricting will be disastrous
for Democrats,” said Jane Kidd,
chairwoman of the Democratic Party
of Georgia. “We’ll be in the wilder
ness for another decade.” '
This election will certainly be dif
ficult for Democrats. Not only does
the party face bigger hurdles in fund
raising than Georgia Republicans
already in office, Democrats must
also combat the natural loss in seats
the nationally in-power party sees in
midterm elections.
“It’s hard. It is an uphill battle. A
lot of people came out to vote for
President Obama that were not
active voters in the past, so we want
to get back with them and explain to
them the importance of midterm
elections.” Kidd said. “As long as the
popularity of the federal government
is so low, then the Democrats are
gonna have to say, ‘Well, we’re the
ones with the good ones up there,’
but if we’re talking about Georgia
politics and Georgia government and
its governor, let’s talk about the
problems in Georgia and the leader
ship we’ve had in the last eight years.
Is this what you want to continue?
And people are in that ‘throw the
bums out’ mood. Well, in Georgia,
that means throwing out the
Republicans.”
Kidd said her party has a good
chance if voters focus on state rather
than national issues.
“If you hear the Republicans talk
ing about national issues to state
offices, it’s because they don’t want
to talk about the failures of the last
eight years," she said.
But Everhart said whether talking
about state or federal issues, Georgia
voters focus on a candidate’s ideolo
MIDTERM MID-TACULAR
serving Senator, died on June 28.
Democratic Governor Joe Manchin
appointed Carte Goodwin to till the
seat, with the understanding that
Goodwin wouldn't run in a special
election Tuesday to fill the remain
ing two years of Byrd's term.
Despite Manchin's individual popu
larity, he must overcome many
Democratic policy positions, partic
ularly dimate change legislation
which is unpopular in this coal-min
ing state. Manchin's response was
to air a campaign ad in which he
fired a bullet into a copy of the
Democrats' cap-and-trade bin. The
race in West Virginia is among the
closest in the country, and extreme
ly important for Republicans wish
ing to gain a Senate majority.
NEVADA
Angie (R) v. Reid (D), Incumbent:
Reid(D)
Tossup, tut Republican
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid
breathed a sigh of relief upon the
Republicans' nomination of Tea
Party-backed Sharron Angle, which
put the race back into play.
Nonetheless. Reid is expected to
lose a narrow race tonight.
is facing off against Roy Barnes,
who previously served as governor
from 1998 to 2002. Barnes, a grad
uate of the University for both
undergrad and law school, isn’t par
ticularly personalty popular, espe
daily because
battle standard
Meanwhile. Deal
has faced ethics
' questions of his
own, surround
ing his personal
finances, especially in relation to an
auto repair shop he owns in
Gainesville. But unless undecided
voters surprise the pundits with a
heavy swing toward Barnes, it looks
like Nathan Deal will be moving to
West Paces Ferry next year.
“We have basically tossed
away competence. We are in
strict ideology.’”
Jn Gmummv
ATtANTA JoURNAL-CoNSTnXTION
gy, and her party’s candidates may
be more in line with the state than
Democratic candidates.
“When they run for office they
become moderate Democrats. Once
they get elected, they become liberal
Democrats,” she said. “I mean, any
body that would have elected Nancy
Pelosi speaker of the House needs to
have their head examined.”
The recent intensity of emotion In
politics has shown the importance
placed on candidates’ ideologies over
other qualities.
“There’s a political gauge that
says, ‘This candidate cannot be
defeated unless he is found in bed
with a live boy or a dead woman,’
and this is where we are right now.
We are essentially in an ideologically
divided area,” Galloway said.
“Generally, an election balances ide
ology and competence do you
want a fellow that can do the job, do
you want a woman who believes the
right things, and then you make your
decisions. Those two are very far
apart right now. We have basically
tossed away competence. We are in
strict ideology.”
And today, the atmosphere is like
ly to help Republicans.
Eric Tanenblatt is senior manag
ing director of Atlanta law firm
McKenna Long & Aldridge, where he
leads the firm’s National Government
Affairs Group. Tanenblatt has served
as Perdue’s chief of staff and was a
long-time adviser to late Republican
Georgia senator Paul CoverdelL
"The Republican party in Georgia
today is much more representative of
the conservative values of people in
the state, and I think the Democratic
party in Georgia tends to be much
more philosophically to the left and I
don’t think they’re in line with the
majority of Georgians,” he said.
“There aren’t a lot of conservative
Democrats in the state anymore. The
conservative Democrats have assimi
lated into the Republican party.”
But Kidd said her party wasn’t as
far to the left on the political spec
trum as some say, and most
Georgians fit right In the middle.
“The majority of Georgians are
The Road to a Majority
SENATE
The Red & Back does not project that Republicans win win a majority in the
Senate. But if they were to gain a majority, here's one route to victory.
Republican Senate seats not up for re-election this year.
40 Democratic Senate seats are not up for re-election
this year.
Seats The Red & Black rates as leaning toward or safe
tor Republicans. The Red 4 Black rates nine seats as
leaning toward or safe for Democrats.
Seats rated as tossups, tilting toward toe Republicans
(Pennsylvania and Nevada) or too dose to call (Colorado
and Illinois).
Seats rated as toesups, tilting toward toe Democrats
(West Virginia and Washington).
A one-vote majority in the Senate of toe 112th Congress.
23
+22
+4
±2
51
HOUSE
AH 435 seats in Congress are up for re-election, with 218 seats needed for
a majority. Though The Red & Black did not rate House races, most politi
cal analysts expect Republicans wiH gain a large majority in the House.
130-150
+35-85
165-235
160-200
+4O-70
200-270
GOVERNORS
There hasn't been quite as much focus on the races for governor in the
various states, as they don't have much of a direct effect on national policy.
Nonetheless, the governors naturally have significant influence over local
policy, and with sway over the upcoming redistricting process, governors
elected this year wiH have an important indirect role on national policy.
7 Democratic seats not up for election. This year sees an
extraordinary 37 gubernatorial seats that wiH be contested.
+3.2 Contested elections The Red 4 Black projects will go to
Democrats.
The total number of governors projected to be Democrats
after this election.
0 Republican seats not up tor election.
, /") /\ Contested elections The Red 4 Black projects will go to
' Republicans.
30 The total number of governors projected to be Republicans
after this election.
The Red 4 Black projects that independent Lincoln Chafee
wi win the Rhode Island gubernatorial race.
conservative to moderate and would
agree on two-thirds of the top issues
that divide the two parties right
now,” she said. “We’ve allowed our
selves to be characterized in a com
pletely foreign, different way, and it’s
our job to express to people who we
are, why we believe the way we do
and what our similarities are instead
of our differences.”
Kidd explained her point using
the issue of abortion. She said sever
al anti-abortion Republicans say
abortions are only appropriate in
extreme cases such as rape, incest or
the mother’s life is in danger
"Well, a lot of Democrats think
that too, and I consider that a pro
choice stance,” she said. “So wait a
minute, we’re actually believing the
same thing, but we’ve got different
names and different parties for it. So
there are hot-button issues like that,
that have middle ground.”
In Georgia, this middle ground is
only likely to grow.
“In the end, demographics are
working against the Republican
party,” Galloway said. “At some point
Georgia will come close to a racial
parity, where your population of
African Americans and other minori
ties will balance out the Republican
dominance, and you can see that in
census after census, it’s just a matter
of when.”
But today, Democrats face quite
the challenge. Widespread dissatis
faction with the state of the economy
and the political status quo gives the
state party a lot to deal with.
“Who are the most pissed off peo
ple? Republicans, specifically young
white men,” Galloway said. “Right
now, voters are not angry at
Republicans in Washington, they’re
angry at Democrats in Washington,
so those voters who are inclined to
vote Republican, they’re willing to
give them a pass on that.”
Try as they might to focus on
state issues, state Democrats
couldn’t distance themselves entirely
from the federal government, even if
they wanted to.
“The direction they are taking our
country is so offensive to so many
people that that is what’s motivating
Republicans,” Tanenblatt said.
“People are disgusted with President
Obama, Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi,
and those are the people who are
running our federal government, and
Democrats in Georgia can try to sep
arate themselves, but at the end of
the day they have a ‘D’ next to their
name, and the captains of the team
are the people I just mentioned.”
NEWS
Democratic seats considered 'safe.’
Seats considered tossups’ Demo
crats are expected to pick up.
The number of Democratic seats in
the House of Representatives of the
112th Congress.
Republican seats considered ‘safe.’
Seats considered tossups’ Republi
cans are expected to pick up.
The number of Republican seats in
the House of Representatives of the
112 to Congress.
The Red * Buck | Tljrsdav, November a, abio
Setting the Stage
INCUMBENT SENATE
Democrats: 57 .g&jffife,
Republicans: 41
Independents: 2 SB -***— ffil
INCUMBENT HOUSE
Democrats: 255
Republicans: 178
President Obama Job Approval:
Approve: 46%, Disapprove: 48%
Though he began his presidency
with approval ratings in the high
60s, with a spread of usually 30 or
40 percent in favor, Obama has
seen his approval ratings steadily
trend downward. Much of the
dedine results from natural falloff
after such high approval earty in his
presidency, but also comes from
unpopular legislation such as health
care reform, enacted by the admin
istration, as well as the administra
tion’s failure to address an unem
ployment rate that remains above
nine percent.
TODAY
The Red 4 Black has maps and
projections for every Senate and
gubernatorial race based on race
ratings from political websites. We
also have analyses of several other
races across the nation.
I*■lf**flll 'I 1 I I 1 1 I 1 1
Tuesday j Red Black |
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POLLING
Generic Congressional Vote:
Republican: 50%, Democrat: 42%
More than any other single number,
toe Republicans' significant advan
tage in the generic ballot forebodes
a major wave by the GOP in Con
gress. The “generic vote’ number
usually comes from questions such
as, “Which party's candidate would
you vote for, the Republican or toe
Democrat?" Several polling services
have shown double-digit leads for
Republicans, signifying the possibil
ity ot greater gains than expected.
Polling data comes from the latest
average by Real Clear Politics, a
polling aggregation web site.
ONLINE
TONIGHT
Log on to our website to follow and
interact with The Red 4 Black’s iive
blog about the election. Well be
online from 6 p.m. until voting con
cludes around fa m., and well be
encouraging reader questions.
3