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Tremendous World-Wide Changes—ls Germany Wins
By Prof. Guglielmo Ferrero, the Distinguished Historian
FRIEND of mine who belongs 10 a neu
A tral nation recently had the occasion of
seeing the Crown Prince of Germany
on the French frontler at the general head
quarters of the army that he Is commanding
After & long conversation with him my friend
had the impression that the Prince is a young
man of ideas much less warlike and military
than is reported of him His Highness said
that he regretted very much this new war thal
had broken out with France, and strongly de
sired an early peace. However, when my friend
asked him under what conditions Germany
would be disposed to make peace, the Prince
replied that the determining of them would
pot depend on him
But he immediately added that Germany
sould never consent, if not compelled by force,
to restore to Belgium iis former state. In one
form or another, either as a land of the em
pire or as a protectorate, Belgium must from
now depend on Germany.
1 do not guarantee that the form of this
thought is expressed exactly as to the letter
but 1 believe myself capable of affirming that
the sense is exact. So then if to-day, when the
fates of war are hanging still uncertain, and
when none can exclude the possibility of the
war terminating with the defeat of the Ger
man army, the heads of that empire are already
saying that at no cost except by force will
they renounce the possession of Belgium, we
can be very sure of the fate that, if the Ger
man arms are victorious, would await that
which was the little kingdom of Albert. In one
way or another Germany would take it
What Germany's French
Land Grab Would Mean.
If Germany, victorious, would add for herself
vast French territories to the Belgian territory,
1 cannot attempt to say, because it Is easier to
have modest desires before victory than after.
At least, lot us take the words of the Germans
when they say that, if victorious, they do not
want to attach any of the French territory at
all, but would content themselves with the
“rectification” of Germany's boundaries on the
basis of the Briey country in Lorraine and a
few strips of French land in the north. Now
let us see what consequences a peace made
An this way couid bave for Europe.
At first sight, after such a bioody war, this
peace would seem generous. The victorious
empire would not have grown much. The sur
face of Belgium does not quite reach thirty
thousand square kilometres. Its precise dimen
sions are twenty-nine thousand four hundred
and fiftyone square kilometers, and some
thousands more of square kilometers would be
given by the French annexation mentioned.
A trifiing thing, if we pay attention only to
the surface; a formidable thing if we analyze
the effects. This slight enlargement would be
enough, in fact, to turn upside down from top
to bottom the whole balance of the Old World.
It would reduce all Continental Europe to vas
salage under a protectorate of Germany and
would put England and her empire in the
greatest danger that she has run in all her
aistory!
To understand how such a small territory as
ihat of Belgium is enough to disturb so pro
foundly the political equilibrium of Europe, it
s necessary to know what Belgium really is.
It is, above all, the most populated land of
Europe. The population of 3,785,814 inhabi
ants in 1821 went up to 4,629,560 in 1856, to 5,
520,009 in 1880, to 6,069,321 in 1890. On De
sember 31, 1902, it showed 6,896.079. or 234
inhabitants to each Kkilometre. December 31,
{9ll, we have 7,490,411—254 inhabitants to each
gilometre.
The following table shows the superiority of
(s population to its surface over the other
selligerent states:
Belglum ............per kilometre 264
Engisnd ..cocavonsee ¥ 169
Rl . iiveesnns g 128
" The Ridiculous Sameness OEPM
By G. K CHESTERTON.
UR historical novels have fallen with ter
O rible sameness into two or three grooves.
We might almost say that a man is not
allowed to write a historical novel excepl about
four different historical periods, about six dil
ferent historical charcters: and even about
them he is not allowed to take any view except
(hat taken by the other romances on the same
~subject.
Now, considering the countless millions of
"marvellous, amusing, unigue and picturesque
‘things that have thronged on top of each other
“through all our wonderful three thousand years
_of European history, this state of affairs is as
_Byzantine and benighted as if no landscape
,;n!nter ever painted anything but a larch-tree.
_or as if none of our sculptors could model any
i“bflimg except the left leg.
. You may write a novel about the ume of
Heary of Navarre—in fact, it might almost be
“said that you must write & novel about tiie time
of Henry of Navarre. If you go in for writing
a, cal novels at all, somebody—the pub-
Hisher or the officeboy—makes you do this. In
j";{‘novel. Huguenots must be gallant gentle
}oa. with a touch of bluffness; Catuolics musi
: ‘%@!}am gent emen, with a touch of aly
ls Aul imporiani poliscal quesiions wiust be
e ———TTTTT e
Prof. Ferrero. the Profound Student of History. Points Out the Startling Sig
nificance and Unsuspected Consequences in Shaping the Future History of Man
kind, if Germany Succeeds in Holding Belgium’s Coal and France’s Iron Mines.
Austria-Hungary .. .per kilometre 78
France sshinebii ™ » ™"
Servia Cibiasin ” 4"
MontonoßN® . coossson . 30
Russia aviddaion - %
SO, annexing Belgium and a few slices of
France from the most densely populated part
of that latter country, Germany, already an
empire of almost 70,000,000, in & few years
would attain to 80,000,000, the double of France
and of England, a little less than the double of
Austria, only a little less than half of Russia
But this is not enough! Belgium is so popu
lous because it is one of the richest countries
in Europe. Rich for the fertility of its soll, for
the number and prosperity of its industries,
and, above all, for the abundance of fossil coal
The production of fossil coal in 1912 was 22,
605,000 tons. It corresponds to about three
tons to each inhabitant, while that of Germany
corresponds to two and one-half tons to each
inhabitant, and that of France one ton.
The workmen employed in the coal industry
in Belgium were 31,000 in 1531, and in these
latter years 150,000, Their salary represents
$37,615,800, with an annual average of almost
S3OO for each individual, while during the
period 1831 to 1840 the annual average was
only calculated at 483 francs, or less than SIOO.
More than $200,000,000 of capital is invested
in these coal mines, and furthermore there
have been $220,000,000 of dividends distributed
from 1865 to 1900. Little Belgium is thus one
of the most densely populated of countries and
also one of the richest in fossil coal
Now, if we understand that the territory of
Briey in French Lorraine--that even today,
when still far from victorious the Germans
confess to having designs upon-—contains, per
haps, the most colossal and richest layers of
iron in all Europe; that Luxemburg also is
very rich in iron; that in the French territory
now occupled by the Germans near Belgium
there are the richest mines of coal in France,
some of them being among the richest in the
world, the conclusion is clear. Everybody
knows that Germany herself is to-day the rich
est country in fossil coal in Continental Eu
rope, thanks to the limmense carboniferous
basins of German-Lorraine and of Ruhr. Ger
many, moreover, has rich iron mines, even if
these do not yet suffice to nourish innumerable
great furnaces. Now, if Germany could suc
ceed in getting possession of Belgium and Lux
emburg and in swelling her boundary to the
disadvantage of France, she would be galning
possession of almost a/l the mines of fossil
coa) and of iron in Europe. Exception being
made of Russia, she would have almost a
monopoly in all Continental Europe of metal
lurgica! industries.
Vast Strides Made by
Germany in Iron Output.
Thoroughly to understand the enormous con
sequences of such an industrial revolution, we
need only turn our thoughts to the times in
which we live. We live in the age of iron and
of fire. Vulcan is the god that in our century
has overthrown all the other gods and taken
possession of Olympia. Iron is the principal
metal which we use in constructing railroads,
{ndustrial machines, arms, merchant ships,
warships, and even the skeletons of buildinge.
It is not possible to-day for a nation to be
a great Industrial power, a great mercantile
power, or a great miltiary power, without being
at the same time a great metallurgical power.
Iron is the metal by which man creates, keeps
and extends empires.
This is so true that Germany, since becoming
a great and powerful empire in 1870, has never
counted expense or effort to become the first
metallurgical power of Europe, expecting, in
deed, down in her heart, some day to become
the first in the world. The history of this ef
fort. to which the world did not pay attention
when it still had time to meet it, is written in
eloquent numbers in industrial statistics. In
1860, metallurgical countries were classified in
settled by duelg fought with long rapiers at
wayside inns.
You must stick to one side of the quarre!;
but even in that you ‘must not bring any of the
charges that a person of the period might
reallvy have brought. For instance, the Court
must be perpetually engaged in plotting to stab
the bluff Huguenot: but you must not insist
that the Huguenot was a Puritan, and his ob
jection to ihie Court would largely be that it
was a Kenaissance Court.
You may also write a novel about the time
of Richelien. But it must be governed by the
same principles. Richelien must be a sinister
yet magnanimous enemy of the hero. He must
try to kill the hero, and unaccountably fail. At
this stage of the writing of historical novels, it
is important to be an imitator of Dumas. There
are eritics who maintain that - Dumas Was
\argely written by imitators of Dumas. This is
an exaggeration; but, at the worst, they were
gzood imitators.
You may write a novel about the French
Revolutir: The essential principles of this
sort of novel are: (1) That the populace of
Paris { -m 1790 to 1794 never had any meals,
nor eve sat down in a case. They stood about
in the vet all night and ali day, sufficiently
susiai v the sight of Blood. especia'ly Blue
Blood _."All power during the Terror was in
the hance of the public execuiioner and of
Rouespierre: and these peisons were subject
this order, according (o the quantity of iren
and steel they manufactured:
Tons.
Great Britaln. ......... ..3,600,000
France . 1,000,000
United 5tate5................. 500,000
SN .....cssrinvunnniine: TN
DI i chseinribsionninier W
DS s csiviiannnsusidaneis T
Austria-Hungary ............. 300,000
The metallurgical production of Germany was
then hardly one-ffth that of England. Who
could have thought then of one day contending
with England for the scepter of iron? In 1870
the order is already a little altered. Germany
has pushed herself ahead somewhat slowly and
modestly from the fourth to the third place.
The United States has also pushed ahead, and
now occuples the second place, putting France
back to fourth. However, the production of
England is still four times greater than the
German. .
Tons.
Great Britain. . ...............60050,100
United 5tate5................1700,000
D .. cciicssnunes eLT
R i ciesicant s BN
e
Austria-Hungary ............. 350,000
B i¢i.iiticsssisaibiiiess DD
Ten years after this, in 1880, Germany is stiil
in third place and England first. Second is held
by the United States. But while the English
has grown by onethird, the German production
has doubled fitself.
Tons.
St IR . iiisiosineis TN
United 5tate5................4,000000
DAY ...l cocssnssssnsss JTNNIND
B i o criisidsdinss i A TRND
DU . i icosisnvscensiess THOONO
Austria-Hungary ............. 470,000
B s csssisns T
U. S. Now Leading, with
Germany in Second Place.
The difference is still immense! But Ger
many Is not discouraged. She continues to
build new furnaces, to dig new mines. In 1890
the United States have won first place, manu
tacturing over 9,000,000 tons. Great Britain
holds itself around 8,000,000, Germany jumps
up to 4,600,000; France to 2,000,000, and Bel
glum to 800,000, Germany continues to pro
gress rapidly, while England is slowing down.
Ter years afterward, in 1900, at the close
of the great century that saw the triumph of
Vulean over the ancient gods of Olympia, the
United States makes another gigantic stride,
arriving at 14,000,000 tons. And Germany, hav
ing produced 8,600,000 tons, has almost caught
up with Great Britain, who surpasses her very
little, with 9,100,000 tons. In this same time
Russia has arrived at 3,000,000 tons, passing
ahead of France, who has been a little asleep
in those ten years, arriving at only 2,700,000,
while Belgium produces 1,000,000 tons.
The first ten years of tlm twentieth century
sees the great ambition crowned with success,
while the United States makes another tre
mendous leap forward, Germany attains second
place, beating Great Britain. The statistics of
production for 1910 are the following:
United 5tate5...............37,700,000
GEFBIBRY +.cvsoorvsesiinies 216,800,000
Great 8ritain...............10,200,000
RO (i it e SR
TR Rt s |
Austria-Hungary ............ 2,100,000
BOIgIIM i iiciisennsiniiie KNS
In the iast four years the production of iron
nas again increased. Germany produced almost
17,000,000 tons in 1913; Belgium, 2,750,000;
France, who for several years has put a great
deal of energy in making up for lost time, has
surpassed 5,000,000.
But if we think that the greater part of these
5,000,000 tons are produced in that basin of
Briey that Germany desires, and in those re
gions of the north that the German now occu-
to abrupt changes of mind, and frequently re
deemed their habit of killing people for no ap
parent reason by letting them off at the last
moment, for no apparent reason efther. (3)
Aristocrats are of two kinds—the very wicked
and the entirely blameless; and both are in
variably good-looking. Both also appear rather
to prefer being guillotined. (4) Such things as
the invasion of France, the idea of a Republic,
the influence of Rousseau, the nearness of na
tional bankruptey, the work of Carnot with the
armies, the policy of Pitt, the policy of Austria,
the ineradicable habit >f protecting one's pro
perty against foreigners, and the presence of
persons carrying guns at the Battle of Valmy
—all these things had nothing to do with the
French Revolution, and should be omitted.
Now, considering the number of picturesque
struggles there have been in the world, it seems
to me that these subjects might be given a rest.
There has been next to nothing written, for in
stance, about the other Wars of Religion, those
that accompanied the construction of Catholic
Europe, rather than its breaking up. There was
the lconoclast invasion of Italy, which ends
with the entrance of Charlemagne. There has
been next to nothing written about riots other
than the Parisian; the many riots of Edin
purgh, especially of those few days when it was
almost as dangerous to be a doctor as to be a
mad dog. Another advantage would be that,
coming fresh to bis historical problem, ths
writer might even read a little history,
SUNDAY. FEBRUARY 28 1015
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‘““The conquest of Belgium and the predominance in the metallurgfcal industries would assure Germany
the economical hegemony of continental Europe; would assure her also the naval and military supremacy.”
pies, it is easy to understand that the annexa
tion of Belgium and of some French districts
would be enough to make the iron and steel in
dustries of continenal Europe almost exclus
ively German.
Having absorbed Belgium and the best part
of France, there would only remain three metal
manufacturing industries—that of the United
States in the far-away America, that of Ger
many in the heart of continental Europe, and
that of England in the little island that only a
slight breadth of sea separates from the Euro
pean coast.
Germany’s Victory Means
England’s Doom in Metal Field.
The American metal industries would still
be the strongest, but Germany would not be far
behind. Anyway, these two would be the most
formidable, and between one and the other the
English metal industries would be squeezed and
crushed.
It is not difficult to forsee the political and
economic consequence of this new order »f
things. The German power would overrun the
world with nothing to hold it pack. Iron is the
material used in the greatest quantity for the
principle modern ihdustries. Iron 1s needed to
construct the railroads, the mercantile ships, all
the machines that,are the indispensable instru
ments in our time of all industries, mechanical
things, textiles, chemical products.
The dominion in the metal industries would
assure to Germany an uncontested pre-eminence
over all continental Europe in all businesses.
In all Europe, and this is true of France and
Italy, the mercantile marine and the mechanical
industries of all kinds would be forced to dimin
ish before the rapid growth to gigantic propor
tions of the German marine and commerce.
This is not a future much calculated to
please the European nations, who would be the
first victims. The Germans complain much
that since the war has broken out they have
become the targets of adversaries who have
sprung up everywhere. They attribute this
aversion to them to jealousy of their riches.
their power, and their success.
And perhaps they are partly right, but only
PROF. GUGLIELMO FERRERO, THE HISTORIAN.
in part. If envy is not far from this inquietude
of which the Germans are the object, this
envy, well founded as it may be, is not the
prineipal reason. From 1870 on, Germany has
practised in the world a kind of aggressive
economic imperialism that has damaged in
Europe a great number of industries and busi
nesses. Whenever she has been able to do so,
she has tried to control industries and busi
nesses in such a way as to be able to impose
on the greater number of foreign countries
her prices, her methods, and her way of doing
things. Now this aggressive imperialism in
business is not at all pleasing to nations less
rich and less powerful, who also desire to de
velop their industries and their commerce. All
these countries desire Burope to have a regime
of equilibrium, not only political but also
economical, that the great powers of Europe
may follow in business the prineciple of “live
and let live.”
The conquest of Belglum and the predom
inance in the metallurgical industries would
assure to Germany the economical hegemony
of continental Europe; would assure her also
naval and military supremacy.
Iron Control Means
Naval and Military Supremacy.
All the other natfons of continental Europe
would become small naval powers the day
when Germany became 80 enlarged. And the
German fleet would become the giant rival
terrible and threatening, of the Englisn fleet,
swollen in population and in riches, mistress
of the richest coal and iron mines, arbiter of
metal industries and of mechanical manufac
tures on the Continent of Europe. Germany
could then think of really creating a fleet
greater and more powerful than that of the
English. Great as may be her riches, her
energy and her courage, England, with forty
million men, would find herself forced to bat
tle against an empire of eighty million that
would not be lacking in any means nor in arms.
To sum up, what an army could Germany put
out when it counted eighty millions of inhabi
tants and was able to economically dominate
Europe? How many cannons, how many
shells. and of what calibre could she produce?
How many guns and war machines cuuiu 808
construct when her war credit was augmented
with the tribute imposed on the new provinces
and when her factories had still grown in
number and in greatness?
A great political knowledge Is uut neces
sary to be able to imagine that such an army
would dominate almost without rival a Europe
in which France, Russia and England would
be only states diminished, impoverished, down
hearted and defeated. Does it not seem then
that the fears raised by Germany in these later
months, even in countries like Italy, which,
until the breaking out of the war, were rather
pro-German, are not without justification, 1f
only the annexation of Belgium and the rectifi
cation of the boundaries at the French frontier
could have such effects?
Austria also Would
Gain by German Success.
But it is clear that if Germany won she would
not be content to annex Belgium, and to re
touch~the boundary with France. She would
grow also on the Russian side, and, with her.
Austria would grow as well; this, whether. at
the expense of Russia or Serbla, is the same.
And it is also sure that such a great triumph
would greatly augment the authority of Ger
many not only in world politice but also in
the internal politics of each country, in science,
in art and in literature. Germany would he
considered in everything as the irresistible
model. Who could persuade men that all is
not perfect with a people who, allied only with
Austria and Turkey, had been able to conquer
France, England, Russia, Belgium, Serbia and
Japan.
Other effects, faster and deeper, would the
vietory of Germany have then on the life and
history of Europe. We will study these another
time. %
For the present let us be certain of this:
That every enlarging, small as it might be,
of Germany on her western frontier ‘would
irreparably disturb the industrial, political and
military equilibrium of all Europe.
*Professor Ferrerc will explain next
Sunday the surprising and far-reaching ef
fects on the social life and history of the
worid if Germany should win.—Ed.