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Tremendous World-Wide Changes—ls Germany Wins
By Prof. Guglielmo fFerrero, the Distinguished Historian
FRIEND of mine who belongs 10 a hed
A tral nation recently had the occasion of
seeing the Crown Prince of Germany
'on the French frontier at the general head
quarters of the army that he is commanding
After a long conversation with him my friend
had the impression that the Prince. is & youns
man of ideas much less warlike and military
than is reported of bim. His Highness satd
that he regretted very much this new war tha!
had broken out with France and strongly de
sired an early peace. However, when my friend
asked him under what conditions Germany
would be disposed to make peace, the Prince
replied that the determining of them would
not depend on him
Rut he immediately added that Germany
would never consent, if not compelled by force
to restore to Belgium its former state. 7 In one
foris or anothér, either as a:land of the em
pire or as a protectorate, Belglum must from
now depend on Germany.
1 do not guarantee thai the form of (his
thought is expressed exactly as to the letter
but | believe mysell_capadle of affirming tha!
the sense is exact. So then if today; when the
fates of war- are ‘hanging still uncertain, and
" when none.can exclude-the possibility of the
war terminating ‘with ‘the defeat of the Ger
man army, the heads of that empire are already
saying that at no cost except by force * will
they renounce ‘the possession of ‘Belgium, we
can be very sure of ‘the.fate.that,’if the Ger
man arms ‘are victdrious, would await that
which was the little ' kingdom of Albert. " In oune
way or another. Germany would take it
What Germany's French
Land Grab Would Mean. :
If Germany, victorlous, would add_for herself
vast French territories to_the.Belgian territory,
1 cannot attempt to.say, because il is easier to
have modest gesires’before victory than after.
At least, lot us take the words of the Germans
when they say that, if victorious, they da not
want to atlach any of.the French territory at
all, but would ;content ‘themselves ,with’ the
“rectification” of Germany's boundaries ou the
basis of the.Briey country in Lorraine and a
few strips of French land in the north. Now
let us see what consequences a peace made
i this way could have for Europe.
At first sight, after such a bloody . war. this
peace would seem _generous. The . victorious
empire would not have grown much.: The sur
face of Belgium does not quite, reach thirty
thousand square kilometres. Its precise dimen
slons are twentynine, thousand,four hundfed
and fftyone square. kilometers;-and some
thousands more of square- kilometers would be
given by the French annexation®mentioned. .
A trifiing thing, if- we:pay°attention only: to
the surfice; a formidable thing»if,we analyze
the effects. This slight.enlargement’ would_ be
enough, in fact, to turnupside down.fromotop
to bottom the whole balance;of the:Old"World.
It would reduce all Continental Europe_to°vas
salage under a protectorate of (Germany and:
would put England and her eémpire“in- the
mt:;'t danger that she°has run in all her
To understand how such a small territory as
that of Belgium is enough to disturb”so pro
foundly the political equilibrium; of; Europe, it
is necessary to know what Belgiumoreally is.
§1 is, above all, the most populated” land of
Burope. The population of - 3,7Bsßl4s°inhabi
tants in 1831 went up to 4,629,660 in°lßs6, to 5,
$20,009 in 1880, to 6,069,321 in 1890.-On De
“rr 31, 1902, it showed 6:896.079. or 234
itants to each kilometre. December 31,
1911, we have 7,490,411—254 §nhabitants to each
kllometre. . 2
The following table shows the superiority of
i{ts population (o its surface over the other
belligerent states: 0
Belgivm ............per kilometro 254
O PG R - 169
B . in o suanin " 123
The Ridiculous Sameness of Our Historical Novels
By G. K. CHESTERTON.
UR historical novels have fallen with ter-
O rible sameness inte two or three grooves.
We might almost say that a man is not
allowed to write a historieal novel except about
four different historical periods, about six dis
ferent historical charcters; and even aboul
them he is not allowed to take any view except
that taken by the other romances on the same
subject.
Now, considering the countless wmillions ol
marvellous, amusing, unigue and picturesque
things that have thronged on top of each other
through all our wonderful three thousand years
of Burovean history, this state of affairs is as
Byzantine and benighted as if no landscape
painter ever painted anything but a larch-tree.
or as if none of our sculptors could model any
thing except the left leg.
You may write a novel about the time of
Henry of Navarre—in fact. it might almost be
said that yon must write a novel about the time
'sf Henry of Navarre, [f you go in for writing
historical novels et all, somebody-—the pub
lisher or the officeboy—makes you do this. In
@kb‘m nove!, Huguenots must be gallant gentle
fi}u_m. with a touch of biuffness: Catnolics must
v’fi&m be gallant gentemen, with a touch of sly-
Eg!@& All important political questions wust be
Prof. Ferrero. the Profound Student of History. Points Out the Startling Sig
nificance and | ||.-||>|»4'¢'lq'¢l Consequences n Shaping the Future History of Man-
Kind. if Germany Succeeds in Holding Belgium’s Coal and France’s Iron Mines.
< Austria- Hungary per kilometre 76
France R . - "
* Hervia sosvssnalon ™ » L
Montenegro . " - 20
Hussia siiidia ™ - %
SO, annexing Belgium *and a few: slices o!
France from the most densely populated part
of that latter’ Gountry” 'Germany, already an
empire of almost 70,000,000, in"a sow years
would attain’ 1o §0,000,000: the double of France
and ‘of. England. a-little less thah the double of
Austria. only.a little less than half of Russia
But_this is not_énough!’ Belglum. is o popu
lous_because it i one ofithe richest countries
in Europe. Rich for the fartility of its ‘soil. for
the number and prosperity of ‘its industries.
and, above all, for the abundance of fossil coal
- The production of fossi! coal in 1912 was .22
$05,000 tons 1t corresponds 1o about - three
tonis_to_each inhabitant, while.that of Germany,
‘corresponds 1o two ‘and one-half tons' to each
inhabitant, and; that of France one:ton.
The' workmen employed in: the coal industry
in Belgium_ were 31,0005 in 1831, and in these
latter yoars ‘150,000 Their 'salary represents
$37,515.500. with an annual average of -almost
S2OO 7 for” each individual, while- during ;the
period 1831510 1540 (the annual average was
ouly calculated at 483 francs, or Jess than SIOO.
More than $200,000000 of capital is invested
in these. coal minés, aud furthermore there
have been $220.000,000 0f dividends distributed
from 1865 to 1900. Little Belgium.is thus one
‘of the most densely. populated of countries and
also one of the richest!in’ fossil:coal.
Now, if we'understand. that“the territory of
Briey in French’ Lorraine-that even to<day,
when “still far“from victorious (he Germaus
confess to having designs upon- contaius, per
haps, the most colossal, and.richest layer of
iron* in: all” Europe; that’ Luxemburg also is
very rich in iron; that in the French territory
now occupled by the Germans near Belglum
there are, the richest mines of coal-in France,
some of ‘them being among the richest in the
world, thé conciusion “is “clear. - Everybody
knows that Germauy herself js to-day-the rich
st country, in<fossil-coal, in Continental - Eu
rope, *thanks °to’ ‘thel immense” carboniferous
basins of {German-Lorraine and_of IRubr. ~ Ger
many! moreoyer, hasgrich. iron“mines” even it
these do:not yet suffice to nourish innumerable
great “furnaces. “Nowroif Germany@could” suc
ceed in getting, possession of:Belglum and Lux
emburggand {iniswelling sher boundary ‘to the
disadvantage -of France she .would ‘be®gainiug
possession of *almost -¢// the ‘mines ‘of fossil
‘coalland, of iron in Europe. Exception.being
made’-of Russia, she -weilld have ,almost a
monopoiy, in all Cortinental Europe of metal
lurgical industries, .
Vioof Strides Made by 4
Germany in Iron Output. .
Thoroughly to understand the eLOrmous con
sequences of such an industtial reyolution, we
need ‘only turn ‘our_thoughts .to the times in
which we'live. We live in the age of iron and
of fire. :Vulcan is the god that in our century
has_overthrown ‘all the other gods and taken
possession:of Olympia. Iron is“the principal
nooul"thchqlwfu-g"’ln constructing railroads,
industrial . machines, ~arms, = merchanto ships,
warships,.and even the.skeletons of buildings.
It. is not.'possible’.to.day: for a nation’ toobe
a great industrial cpower..a -greal °moercsntllo
power, or & greatgmiltiary.power, without being
at the same, time a great’ mefallurgicaljpower.
iron is the metal by which man creates, keeps
and extends ,empires.. : .
This(is s6_true’that Germany, since becoming
a great’and powerful empire in 1870, has never
counted expense ‘orgeffort”to become jthe’ first
metallurgical power of Europe, .expecting,in
deed, down in her heartosome’ day,to become
the first in“theworld. = The‘history, of this ef
fort,’to’ which the world_did not-pay_attention
when it still{had time“to meet it, isowritten In
eloquént numbers (in_indiistrial statistics.. In
1860, metallurgical countries were classified in
settled by duels fought with long rapiers at
wayside inns.
You must stick to one side of the quaru!:
but even in that you must not bring any of the
charges that a person of the perlod "might
really have brought. For instance, the Court
must be perpetually engaged in plotting to stab
the bluff Huguenot: but you must not insist
that the Huguenot was a Puritan, and his ob
jection to the Court would largely be that it
was a Renalscance Court.
You may also write a novel about the time
of Richelieu. But it must be governed by the
same principles. Richelieu must be a sinister
vet magnanimous enemy of the hero. He must
try to kill the hero, and unaccountably fail. At
thig stage of the writing of historical novels, it
is important to be an imitator of Dumas. There
are critics who maintain that Dumas was
largely written by imitators of Dumas. This is
an exaggeration; but, at the worst, they were
good imitators.
You may write a novel about the French
Revolution. The essentlal principles of this
sort of novel are: (1) That the populace of
Paris from 1790 to 1794 never had any meals,
nor even sat down in a case. They stood about
in the street all ‘night and all day, sufficiently
sustaive? by the sight of Blood, especially Blue
Blood (2) All power during the Terror was in
the hands of the public executioner and of
Robespierre; and these persons were subject
(his order, according o the quantity of irea
and steel they manufactured:
Tous.
Grest Britain. ................ 35600000
France vasslasnnanss sBN .
United Slates. .. .. ............ 500,000
* COBNARY «.oicsssiasssussrnss TS
DO 2. Cocrvncscinsscanes DRI
Austria-Hungary .. . e .
I'he metallurgical production of Germany was
then hardly one fifth ‘that of England.. Who
could have thought then ‘of one day contending
with' England for the scepter of iron? In 1570
the order is already & little altered. -Germany
bas pushed herself ahead somewhat slowly and
modestly from- the fourth to-the third. place
The United States has also pushed ahead:and
now occuples the second: place, putting France
back to fourth. However, the production of
England is still four ‘times greater than the
German. ;
Tons.
Great Britain. . ... ............ 6050100
United 5tate5................ 1700000
RIS ¢ g oioashisasinnie+lAßlND
TR SRR C e
Austria HUnDgary ............. 330,000
Russia . Csiasiel e D
Ten years after this, in 1880, Germany,is still
in third place and. England first. Second is held
by the United States. But' while the English
has grown by onethird, the German production
has doubled itselfl
Tons.
Great 8ritain................ 7,800,000
United 5tate5................4,000000 '
Germany :mm
PRRBOS ... ivionsssnvovennss LIURIND
Belgium . cisiniviriciines TRENDD
Austris-Hungary ............. 470,000
BRI .. i ccbisassanassanss TN
U. 8. Now Leading, with
Germany in Second Place.
The difference is still immense! But Ger
many is not discouraged. She continues to
build new furnaces, to dig new mines. In 1880
the United States have won first place, manu
facturing over 9000000 tons. Great Britain
holds itself around 8,000,000, Germany jumps
up to 4,500000; France to 2,000,000, and -Bel
gium to 800,000. Germany continues to pro
gress rapidly, while England is slowing down.
Ter years afterward, in 1900, at the close
of the ‘great century that saw the triumph of
Vulcan ‘over the ancient, gods of Olympia, the
United” States makes another gigantic stride,
arriving at 14,000,000 tons. And. Germany, hay
ing.produced; 8,500,000 tons, has almost caught
up with’ Great_Britain, who surpasses her very
little, with® 9,100,000 'tons. ~ In’this same time
Russia -has_arrived “at 3,000,000 tons, “passing
ahead”of France’ who has:been a’little’ aslcep
in’ those. ten -years, arriving at,only’ 2,700,000,
while! Belgium: produces 1,000,000, tons. . .
The first ten years of the_ twentietlr century
sees the xront"m!gmonccr;ownod’yit_h success.
while“the United, States “makes another tre
mendous;leap forward’ Germany attains second
place;-beating Great“ Britain.” The statistics of
production’ for 1910 are:the following:
- United°5tate5...............27.700,000
GErmMANY, .. ....eeoosssoooo. 14,800,000
Great 8ritain................10,200,000
SRR - i o i viisbasanrense ST
e SRR N
Austria-Hungary. ............ 2,100,000
Belglum ... ...ofiaaiaen - 1,800,000
In the last four years:the)production of iron
nas’again increased. Germany produced almost
17,000,000° tons. in 1913; ¢ Belgium, 2,750,000,
France, who®for.several years'has put’a’ great
deal’of efiergy, in making up-for’lost time, has
sur passed®s,ooo,ooo. , - e
But'if ‘we’think that the greater part of these
5,000,000 tons are.produced).in thatc basin "of
Briey that®°Germany ‘desires; and °in ‘thosere
gions of the®north that the German now’ogcu-
to abrupt ‘changes of .mind, and frequently re
deemed, thelr habit_of Killing people.for ‘no ap
parent reason by letting ghém off ‘at the last’
moment, for'no ‘apparent reason either. (3)
Aristocrats aré of two kinds—the very wicked
and the entirely’ blameless;c and both are.in
variably good-ooking.’ Both also appear rather
to prefer being guillotined. (4) Such things as
the invasion of France, the’idea of a Republic,
the influence of Rousseau, the nearness of na
tional bankruptey, the work of Carnot with the
armies, the policy of Pitt, the policy of Austria,
the ineradicable habit »f protecting one's pro
perty against foreigners, and the presence of
persons carrying guns at the Battle of Valmy
—all these things had nothing to do with the
Franch Revolution, and should be omitted.
Now, considering the number of picturesque
struggles there have been in the world, it seems
to me that these subjects raight be given a rest
There has been next to nothing written; for in
stance, about the other Wars of Religion, those
that accompanied the construction of Catholic
Europe, rather than its breaking up. There was
the lconoclast invasion of Italy, which ends
with the entrance of Charlemagne. There has
been next to nothing written about riots other
than the Parisien; the many riots of Edin
burgh, especially of those few days when it was
almost as dangerous to be a doctor as to bhe a
mad dog. Another advangage would be that,
coming fresh to his historical problenr, the
writer might even read a little history. .
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PROF. GUGLIELMO FERRERO, THE HISTORIAN.
““The conquest of Belgium and the predominance in the metallurgical industries would assure Germany
the economical hegemony of continental Europe; would assure her also the naval and military supremacy.”’
pies, it is. easy to understand that the annexa
tion_of Belgium and of-some “French districts
would be enough'to make the iron and steel in
dustries of continenal Europe®almost exclus
ively German.: ¢ :
Haying absorbed Belgium and the best -part
of France, there would only remain three metal
manufacturing industries—that of the United
States in the far-away America; that of Ger
many in_the heart-of-continental Europe, and
that-of England in the’little’island’that only a
slight breadth of sea separates from the Euro
pean coast. ;
Germany's Victory Means 3
England’s Doom in Metal Field.
The American metal industries wouid still
be.the strongest, but Germany would not be far
behind. ° Anyway, these two would-be the most
formidable, and bet'ween one and the other the
English metal industries would be squeezed and
crushed. °
It is°not difficult to forsee the politica! and
ecohomic consequence of this new order of
things. The°German power would overrun the
world with nothing to hold it back. Iron Wethe
material used in the greatest quantity for the
principle modern industries. Iron 1s needed to
construct the railroads, the mercantile ships, all
the macliines that are the indispensable instru
ments in our time of all industries, mechanical
things, textiles, chemical products.
The dominion in the metal industries would
assure to Germany an uncontested pre-eminence
over all continental Europe in all businesses.
In all Europe, and this is true of France and
italy, the mercantile marine and the mechanical
industries of all kinds would be forced to dimin
ish before the rapid growth to gigantic propor
tions of the German marine and commerce.
This is not a future much calcul~ted to
please the European nations, who would be the
first vietims. The Germans complain much
that since the war has broken out they have
become the targets of adversaries who have
sprung up everywhere. They attribute this
aversion to them to jealousy of their riches,
their power, and their success.
And perhaps they are partl: right, but only
in part. If envy Is not far from this Inquietude
ofc which the ‘Germans are the .object, this
envy, well founded as.it may be, is not the
principal reason. From 1870 on, Germany has
practised in the world ‘a” kind of aggressive
economic imperialism that- has® damaged in
Europe a great number of industries and .busi
nesses.” Whenever she has been able to'do-so,
she has tried oto control industries and busi
nesses in such a’way as to°be‘able to impose
on the greater, number of foreign 'countries
her prices,cher methods, and her way of-doing
things.. . Now: this aggressive imperialism in
p'lxsiness is ‘not-at all pleasing ‘to nations less
rich and.less.powerful, 'who also desire to de
velop their industries and their comierce. All
these countries desire Europe to have a regime
of equilibrium, not only °political but also
economical, that.the great powers of Europe
may follow in business the prineciple of “live
and let live.”
The conguest of Belgium and the predom
fnance in the metallurgical industries would
assure to Germany the economical hegemony
of continental Europe; would assure her also
paval and military supremacy.
Iron Control Means
Naval and Military Supremacy.
All the other natfons of continental Europe
would become small naval powers the day
when Germany became so enlarged. And the
German yee{ would become the giant rival
terrible and threatening, of the Englisn fleet,
swollen in population and in riches, mistress
of the richest coal and iron mines, arbiter of
metal industries and of mechanical manufac
tures on the Continent of Europe. Germany
could then think of really creating a fleet
greater and more powerful than that of the
English. Great as may be her riches, her
energy and her courage, England, with forty
million men, would find herself {>rced to bat
tle against an empire of eighty million that
would not be lacking in any means nor in arms.
To sum up, what an army could Germany put
out when it counted eighty millions of inhabi
tants and was able to economically dominate
Kurope? How many cannons, how many
shells, and of what calibre could she preduce?
How many gunsg and war machines cuuwiu Bne
construct-when her war credit was augmented
with the tribute imposed on the new provinces
and when' her factories had still grown in
number and in greatness?
A “great political "knowledge Is unol neces
sary to be.able to imagine that such an army
would ‘dominate almost without rival a Europe
in ‘which France, Russia ‘and England would
be only states diminished, impoverished, down
hearted and defeated. Does it not seem then
that.the fears raised by Germany in these later
months, even in‘’countries’like Italy, -which,
until the breaking out of the war, were rather
pro-German, are_not without justification, if
only the annexation of Belgium and.the rectifi
cation of the boundaries at the French frontier
could have such effects?
Austria also Would
Gain by German Success.
But it is clear that If Germany won she would
not be content to annex Belgium, and to re
touch the boundary with France. She would
grow also on the Russian side, and, with her
Austria would grow as well; this, whether s
the expense of Russia or Serbia, is the same.
And it is also sure that such a great triump®
would greatly augment the authority of Ger
many not only in world politics but also in
the internal politics of each country, in science,
in art and in literature. Germany would be
considered in everything as the {irresistible
model. Who could persuade men that all ia
not perfect with a people who, allied only with
Austria and Turkey, had been able to congues~
France, England, Russia, Belgium, Serbia and
Japan.
Other effects, faster and deeper, would the
victory of Germany have then on the life and
history of Europe. We will study these another
time. %
For the present let us be certain of this:
That every enlarging, small as it might be,
of Germany on her western frontier would
irreparably disturb the industrial, political and
military equilibrium of all Europe.
*Professor Ferrero will explain next
Sunday the surprising and far-reaching ef
fects on the social life and history of the
world if Germany should win—Ed.