Newspaper Page Text
SUNDAY, MAY 31.
VALUE OF FORECASTING
HIGH WATER AT AUGUSTA
The Auqusta District of the
River and Flood Service of
the Weather Bureau Or
qanized Shortly After the
Great' Freshet of ’BB
THE SERVICE TODAY IS
REMARKABLY PERFECTED
Predictions Are of EspeVial
Value to Farmers, Lumber
men, Stockmen, Steamboat
Companies, Etc., Along the
River.
When in 188 R r grout freshet broke
upon Augusta the muddy waters of the
restless Savannah flowed through the
streets of the city for the first time in
nearly a quarter of a century and were
of greater depth, velocity, and destrue-
JqJK HOTELS
J4ARIEANTOINETTE
NEW YORK
BROADWAY AT 66th STREET
A high-grade hotel con
ducted on the European
plan at moderate prices.
Subway at the hotel en
trance — Broadway surface
cars and Fifth Avenue bus
pass the door.
WOOLLEY & C RRANS, Prop..
A. M. Woolley, M|t. j
Alio Proprietors
HOTEL IROQUOIS. BeifaU, N.T. ff jR j
© 7%4/ty^
4 WECIAy / \ i<T ~~ w
-■ ' Xui#:* ..r^
There’s as much difference between
Dan Patch Special Horse Feed and the
thousand ana one fancy named mix
tures as there is between Dan Patch
and a “plug.” #
Dan Patch Feed Is composed of choicest osts, corn,
alfalfa meal and Louisiana cane molasses, made by
our exclusive hot process. No indigestion, so com- j
non when cold mixetl feeds are used. Tones up the i
animal. Prevents disease. Effects a saving of Vb’jb j
to 20% on your feed bills.
WE ALSO MANVFA CTVKB
International Horse and Mule Feed International Poultry Peed !
International Jewel Molasses Feed International Cow Food
International Jewel Hen Feed Happy Jack Male Feed
Sold everywhere. Ask oar Distrihvtor (or name of nearest Dealer.
International Sugar Feed No. Two Co.,
MEMPHIS, TENNESSEE.
Augusta Grocery Go. cZgia'
Wholesale Distributors.
GRAND OPENING
———————i
LAKE VIEWCASINO
Monday. June Ist 1914.
GolMein Musical Comedy Co.
16 PEOPLE,
Refined High Class Attraction.
TWO SHOWS NIGHTLY.
7:30 and 9:15 P. M.
USUAL MATINEES
five force than at any time since the
flood of 1796. Fear of the water had
disappeared, and its .full possibilities as
a destroyer of life and property had be
come a mere tradition dimmed by the
passing of many years.
The freshet of ISBB, however, impress
ed upon the public mind a conviction of
the necessity for some means of protec
tion, and that there might be opportun
ity to safeguard life and movable prop
erty the Augusta district of the River
end Flood Service of the Weather Bu
reau was organized in 1892 to give warn
ing of the approach of dangerously high
water. >
Valuable Records.
Since 1892 there lias accumulated a
valuable series of dally rainfall observa
tions for the Savannah river watershed
above Augusta, and an earnest effort has
been made to obtain from the data a
scheme for the forecasting of river
stages at Augusta as accurate and com
plete as can be devised. Since the rises
are flashy, sometimes being very sud
den, river-gage reading at points above
are usually of little avail, and estimates
must be bused upon the relation between
the average rainfall over the catchment
basin and the stages normally resulting
therefrom under the existing conditions.
Such a scheme can not be expected to
give absolutely accurate results in every
instance but tests have shown a degree
of accuracy thfft meets every practical
requirement.
Predictions of high-watar stages have
been made for Augusta for a number of
years, and frequently with considerable
accuracy and success, but in some in
stances the warnings preceded the flood
crests by so few hours that their useful
ness was greatly impaired. This feat
ure was one of the first to receive my at*
LADIES LISTEN
For Experienced Hairdressing
Phone 2621-J or 928.
Save your combings and do not
send your work out of the city
Have work done by one of most
experienced lady hair dressers in
South —Mrs. J. Will Ergle, 502
West Avenue. North Augusta, S.
C. All work sent for and deliver
ed. Satisfaction guaranteed.
tention three years ago in my effort to
make the work more effective, and it enn
•tie confidently stated that the possibili
ty of the development of dangerous river
conditions without ample and timely
warning has been fully eliminated.
Precautions Against Surprises.
With 9 stations outside of Augusta
telegraphing each inch of rain as It falls
during the day, each half inch or more
for the 24 hours ending at 8 a, m.,
and special reports whenever requested,
the river forecaster Is at all times In
possession of the detailed information
necessary for the proper performance of
his duties. Additional security from sur
prise Is afforded by placing nearly all
of the instruments in the hands of tele
graph operators, who can telegraph re
ports even at night if an emergency
should require it. *
Nearly all of the river forecasts are
for the information of farmers, lumber
men, steamboat companies, and engineers
and contractors engaged on government
or municipal developments along tin; riv
er. Only on rare occasions does It be
come necessary give warnings of
stages dangerous to Augusta itself, but
occasionally tlie river rises high enough
to cause apprehension. Whether the de
sire for information is inspired by a pre
diction of actual danger or merely by a
general feat* of danger, every effort is
made to secure and disseminate the most
reliable information obtainable. Prediq
tiona are made for ail stages above 18
feet.
Excellent opportunity during the past
two years to observe tho river under
nearly all possible conditions has sup
plied much experience that was needed!
to point out some facts not made suf
ficiently clear by the abstract study of
tlie records. This experience has in
deed been so useful that it seems war
rantable to complete tlie work of putting
the forecast scheme in permanent form
Complicated Problems.
In the South, where snow and ice are
almost unknown and never accumulate
to any extent, the forecasting of high
river stages from reports of precipita
tion is comparatively simple. The ques
tion in each instance resolves itself inlo
the determination of the probable effect
of tlie average rainfall over the water
shed as indicated by telegraphic reports
from selected stations.
The chief difficulty arises from vary
ing absorption by the ground, according
to its degree of dryness and the rate of
rainfall. A very dry or only slightly
moist soil often absorbs so much rain,
even when the amount is considerable,
that the immediate effet upon the river
is negligible. General heavy downpours
on dry ground might conceivably result
in a rapid run-off of water and a conse
quent material rise in the river, but
rains of this Intensity usually come in
the summertime and are characteristical
ly so local that their simultaneous oc
currence over all or a large portion of
the catchment area, which embraces 7,-
294 square miles, is a very remote pos
sibility. Freshets of magnitude take
place in the Savannah river at Augusta
only after the ground in the upper
reaches of the stream has become sat
urated.
Water from the more distant portions
of the watershed also complicates the
problem, for when the rainfall covers two
or more consecutive 24-hour periods on
the second and subsequent days an al
lowance must be added for the volume
from the distant streams. In summer
another uncertainty is Introduced by the
erratic distribution of the showers of
that season.
Development of the River Forecaet
Scheme.
It is intended to discuss first the ef
fect upon tlie river at Augusta of rains
within a 24-hour period, then the effect
of rains extending into 48-hour and long
er periods. This discussion is based for
the most part on records for the 24
hours ending at 8 a. m., but in some
cases when it was evident that the ac
tual 24-hour rainfall covered the obser
vation hour the records for two dates
were combined.
Flood crests usually reach Augusta in
from 18 to 30 hours after the receipt of
the rainfall telegrams. The distribution
of amounts has much to do with the rate
of rise and the time of arrival of the
crest of the rise, though, as has been
intimated, it has little effect on the mag
nitude of the ultimate stage.
Reporting Stations.
The consistency in the relation be
tween the rainfall averages and the river
stages in all hut a few instances dem
onstrates that the six or seven reports
used give true averages for the water
shed. To provide against the repeti
tion of the few unreliable averages,
however, additional stations were estab
lished in July, 1912, at Camak, Ga.,
Edgefield, S. C., and Glllsville, Ga. A
balanced horizontal distribution of frain
fail stations has always been maintained
with a somewhat greater number on the
Georgia side on account of the greater
number and greater importance of the
tributaries there. River gage readings
are reported from Carlton, Ga., on the
Broad river, and Calhoun Falls, S. C.,
on tlje Savannah river.
Normal Rise.
The natural supposition Is that the
higher the water In the river becomes
tiie less will be the effect of a given por
tion of the total amount of rainfall in
producing any further Increase In depth.
Beyond a certain river stage, which may
he conservatively placed at 29 feet at
Augusta, this is true of the Savannah
river. When the soil is moist at the
outlet the normal rise from stages under
18 feet, remains near 8.5 feet for nek
inch of average rainfall over the water
shed in 24 hours until the 29-sot stage Is
reached. In a few instances the rise
for each inch of rain has exceeded n
feet, hut 8.5 feet gives an excellent
working basis for forcastlng purposes.
A partial explanation of this persist
ency of rise Is, (hat the ground absorp
tion reduces the rise at lower stages to
such an extent as to counterbalance
much of the retarding effect of tho In
creasing width of the stream and the
accelerated velocity of Ihe current at
higher stages. / Additional explanation
Table From Which high Water Can Be
Accurately Forecasted at Augusta
_ 4 TABL E XI.
Sra(?p" normally resulting In the Suvnnnah river at Augusta, Os., from
rainfall over the watershed, after deducting from sveruge rainfall an allow
ance for ground absorption and after adding 30 per cent of previous day’*
average for upper section minus absorption.
| Initial Stages. Italnfall aid resulting stage*.
| X.OO 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00 5.50
| s feet ...10.5 ijo! 3S? 2!M> ill ti.f 34.4 15.5 36.6 37. i
1 9 feet ...17.5 21.8 26.0 29.5 31.4 33.1 34.5 35.7 36.8 37.8
10 feet ...18.6 22.8 27.0 29.8 31.7 33.3 34.7 35.9 37.0 37.9
H feet ...19.5 23.8 28.0 .30.2 32,0 33.5 34.9 38.1 37.2 38.1
12 fct6 ...20,5 24.8 29.0 30.6 32.3 33.7 35,1 36.3 37.4 38.3
13 feet ...21.6 25.8 29.4 31.0 32.7 34.1 35.4 36.5 37.6 38.5
14 feet ...22,5 26.7 29.7 81.4 33.1 34.5 35.7 36.8 37.8 38.7
15 feet ...23,0 27.5 30.0 81.8 33.5 34.9 36.0 37.1 38 0 38.9
16 feet ...23.5 27.9 30.2 32.0 33.7 35.0 36.2 37.2 38.1 39 0
17 feet ...24.0 28.2 30.4 32.2 33.9 35.1 36.3 37.3 88.2 39.1
18 feet ...24.4 28.4 30.6 82.4 34.0 35.2 36.4 37.4 38.3 39.2
19 feet ...24.8 28.6 30.8 32.8 84.1 35.3 36.5 37.5 88.4 39.3
20 feet ...25.2 28.8 81.0 32.8 84.2 35.4 36.6 37.6 38.5 39.4
21 feet ...25.6 29.1 31.2 32.9 34 4 35,6 36.7 37.7 38.6 39.5
22 feet ...26.0 29.4 31.4 33.0 34.5 35.7 36.8 37.8 38.7 39.6
23 feet ...26,4 29.6 31.6 33.1 34 6 35.8 36.9 37.9 38.8 39.7
24 feet ...26.8 29.8 31.7 33 2 34.7 35.9 37.0 38.0 38.9 39.7
25 feet ...27.2 30.0 31.8 33.4 34.9 36.0 37.1 38.0 38.9 39.7
26 feet ...27.6 30.1 31.9 83.5 34.9 36.1 37,2 38.1 39.0 39,8
27 feet ...28.0 30.2 32.0 33 6 85.0 36.1 37,2 38.1 39.0 39.9
28 feet ...28.5 30.3 32.1 33.7 35.1 36.2 87.3 38.2 39.1 39.9
29 feet ...29.0 30.5 32.2 33.9 35.2 36.3 37,4 38.3 39.2 40.0
30 feet ...30,0 30.7 32.5 34.1 35.3 36.4 37.5 88.4 39 3 40.0
31 feet ...31.0 31.6 33.1 34.6 35.8 36.9 37.9 38.8 39.6 40.2
32 feet ...32.0 32.5 33.7 35.1 36.3 37.3 38.3 39.1 .39.8 40,5
,33 feet ...33.0 33.4 34.3 35.6 36.7 37.7 38.7 39 4 40.0 40.7
84 feet ...34.0 34.2 34.9 36.1 37.1 38.1 39.0 39.7 40 3 40 9
35 feet ...35.0 35.0 35.5 37.5 37.5 38.5 39.3 40.0 10.6 41,2
35 feet ...36.0 36.0 36.9 38.3 37.9 33 9 39.6 40,3 40.9 41.4
FHE AUGUSTA HERALD. AUGUSTA, GA.
is found in the fact that tho percentage
of run-off from the faster rate of fall of
larger amounts of rain Is enough great
er than the percentage of fun-off from
the slower rate of fall of the smaller
amounts of ruin, to materially assist in
giving, for the larger amounts, the
same average rise in feet per inch of
rain, with h gh resultant stages, as re
sults from smaller amounts with lower
stages.
Effect of Fainfall Distribution on the
Height of tho Flood Crest.
In selecting stations that are to report
rainfall for rivarstage forecasting it is
of the utmost importance to maintain at
all times a. consistent horizontal distri
bution. This does not mean that the
stations should he equidistant, for in
such an arrangement the dVnlnag* areas
of major importance would lie given tlie
same weight as relatively ins gnlficnnt
areas. Over basins drained by larger and
more numerous streams more stations
should be placed than over those of less
er importance in accumulating and dis
charging the surface run-off from rain
fall. This work properly and thorough
ly done disposes of the.question of rain
fall distribution so far as the importance
of one station over another is concerned
and incidentally eliminates from the
problem all consideration of topgrnphy
and other physical peculiarities of a per
manent character.
When il is stated that the drainage
basin of the Savannah river above Au
gusta must be divided into two sections,
from one of which the crest reaches Au
gusta in from 18 to 24 hours and from
the other in about 40 to 48 hours, it is
at first difficult to see why the stations
in the section above Calhoun Falls
should be given the same individual
weight In computing the rise 1o sea. ex
pected from a 24-hour rain as are the
stations over the area from which the
crest reaches Augusta in much less time.
However. experimental forecasts in
which the upper stations are ignored
nearly always result in a decided loss of
accuracy.
It appears that the run-off from heavy
rains in the upper section of the water
shed supports the water in tlie ne glihor
ing portions of the streams, and, by pre
venting it from flattening out, contrib
utes indirectly to tlie ultimate stage.
When there is no such support, the max
imum stage at Augusta is lower In pro
portion to tlie deficiency of precipita
tion in the upper section. When pre
cipitatios is decidedly heavier in the up
per section than in the lower, its volume
is sometimes sufficient to continue tho
rise beyond tho usual time and givs a
crest higher than that indicated by the
average rainfall for the watershed. Such
an occurrence is somewhat rare, but it
may be anticipated by adding to the
average for all stations 39 per cent of
the difference between the average for
tho upper stations and the average for
all stations.
From what has been said It is obvious
that when general rain falls over the
Bfl.van.nah Valley the stage to be predict
ed can be determined without applying
to the average rainfall any modification
other than an allowance for nhsorptlon
by the ground. This is true even though
there he wide differences in tho amounts
at the various stations.
Summer Showers.
Frequently, however, summer showers
do not distribute themselves generally
over the watershed, and th run-off from
wide areas may be either insignificant or
entirely lacking. They follow no rule
such as has been explained for general
rainfall, and it is always necessary to
determine as nearly as possible to what
extent the distribution Is erratic.
When the rains have fallen long
enough before the receipt of the reports
for the water to have taken effect at
Carlton and Calhoun Falls, the river
readings at those points are very help
ful. It has also been found of as
sistance to utilize the reports from cot
ton reg ! on reporting stations. A knowl
edge of general meteorological condi
tions ns shown by the daily weather map
and an understanding of the significance
of those conditions are required.
The above-mentioned aids in deter
mining the character of the distribution
are, however, merely supplementary to
the following rules, which have been as
certained fey practical experience, though
the river-gage relations are often of al
most equal importance and are some
times tlie main deciding factor.
Those rules are applicable only to er
ratic summer thunderstorms.
1— When the average rainfall is two
inches it is vefy rarely advisable to re
duce the estimate on account of Irregu
larities 1n dlstributon.
2 When the rainfall averages 1.50
inches or somewhat less:
(a) When only 2 stations in 10 have
less than 0.50 Inch the distribution should
he considered general and no allowance
made for erratic distribution.
(b) —When 3 stations In 10 have less
than 0.50 inch allow three-fourths to full
value, after making allowance ft* ground
absorption.
(c) —When 4 or 5 stations In 10 have
less than 0.50 Inch allow for a rise of
only one-half value, unless 2 or more of
the other stations have 3 or more inches
of rain, when the estimate should he
three-fourtliH to full value, In the discre
tion of the forecaster, after making al
lowance for ground absorption.
Before closing the subject of rainfall
distribution It may he well to mention
the fnet that when one or two stations
In the upper section of the watershed
report 3.50 to 5 Inches of rain that is
apparently local In character the heavy
downpours arc at times of sufficient ex
tent to cause a moderate rise that cul
minates In Augusta in 40 to 48 hours. In
order to antlelpato such rises. It is nec
essary to have the river stations report
stages at 5 p. m. and the next 8 a. m.
“Both Safe; Coming Home.”
Milwaukee, Wie. —"Both safe; com
ing home.”
This was the wording of a tele
gram received today from Henry Free
man, of West Allis, Wls., who with
hiH wife, was ahoard tho Kmpress of
Ireland. Tho Freeman's had been
listed among tho second cabin pas
sengers missing.
To Navy and Army.
Washington—Senator Whlto of Ala
bama, today announced tho appoint
ment of Myron Dllon , Birmingham
and Eric M. Orinsley, Fayette, mid
shipmen at the naval academy, and
Horace Harding, Tuscaloosa and Ju
lian K. Miller, Montgomery, cadets at
the military academy.
Light Weight Six—Built by Men Who Know
Enters Its Second Year With
Colors Flying
/ *J a HE severest tests that any car ever faced, and a full
season’s service in the hands of hundreds of owners all over
America, did not develop a single mechanical weakness in the Chandler
Light Weight Six. The one and only change in the 1914 model is found
in its beautiful new stream-line body, —unbroken, unmarred graceful lines
from the bow of the tonneau to the tip of the hood.
%
Sensation of the Season’s Auto Shows
All eyes are on the Chandler. It has
been the sensation at every big Auto
mobile Show this winter. And for good
reasons.
Here is a Six that gives 16 miles, or
wore, to the gallon of gasoline—runs 700
miles per gallon of oil—averages 7000
miles per set of tires —does 3 to 55 miles
per hour without shift of gears—climbs
every famous demonstrating hill between
the Pacific and the Atlantic on high—pos
sesses every high-grade feature found
on high-priced sixes weighs only
SPETH GARAGE AND SALES CO.
930 ELLIS STREET.
CHANDLER MOTOR CAR CO., Manufacturers, Cleveland, Ohio
S 7 RIVERSIDE k;
r NAVAL ACADEMY jgh
IDEAL VACATION
PLAN FOR A BOY.
The combination of
wholesome recreation
out of doors with a mod
erate amount of reading,
or if the hoy his been
deficient In school, a
certain amount of sys
tematic study. Riverside
Hummer Naval School
ii nd Camp Is the only In
stitution of Its kind in
the South that has IT. S.
Government recognition
and equipment. Cadets
live In barracks or In
(ents as preferred. The
last ten days will be
spent in camp st
wrlgbtsvllle Beach, N.
C. Session begins June
30 end continues eight
weeks.
Illustrated Calling on Rrqurd.
RIVERSIDE NAVAL ACADEMY
Box 37, Galncivlllr, Ga.
Ice, Fruit, Vegetables,Groceries
%
I wish to announce tin* opening of my new store, whore I am prepared
to attend promptly the wants of my patrons.
ICE -in large or small quantities, delivered free. Just phone 1846.
FRUIT—aII kinds of choice ripe fruit always on hand. Free delivery.
VEGETABLES—a complete line of choice fresh vegetables. Any
thing to be had in the Augusta market, delivery.
GROCERIES —Complete line of staple groceries. Free delivery any
where.
CHICKENS and EGGS —Fresh every day.
Tt is to your interest and mine that you phone me before making your
purchases.
All goods delivered free to every part of the city.
J. L. RADFORD
PHONE 1846. 15 EAST BOUNDARY.
' il
I
l I
1%. li
i •
Special Kates for the Summer Months
STARTING JUNE IST
Palin Beach Suits Frenrh Dry Cleaned, Steamed and preased .. ROO
Men’s Suita jSC
Two or three-pieced Ijtdlos Skirts KQC up
Coat SuitH *IQO UP
Cadies' Panama# 50' : anitTRC
Men’s Panamas S 0 ( ’
Straw Huts I 2RC
You are at no risk to trust us any of your favorite articles. All
work handled by experts. We guarantee all of our work to be tbe best.
A trial order will convince you.
German Hat Company and French Dry Gleaners
PHONE 1247 J. 680 BROAD
2885 pounds, on the scale —rides the bumps
like a boat —and sells for $1785.
You can’t buy more in any six, except need
less weight and needless up-keep expense.
Come see the Chandler. Exclusive Chand
ler long-stroke motor. All parts quickly
accessible. Perfect, constant lubrication.
Silent imported chain drive for cam shaft,
pump and generator. Westinghouse sep
arate unit electric starting and lighting sys
tem. Complete equipment, including Bosch
High Tension Magneto. Wheel base 120
inches. Roomy bodies in four styles.
ANNUAL SUMMER
REDUCTION SALE
Trunks, Batjs, Suit Cases. Etc.
~——:.ar»nr -f-sue f f—iussri
(Matting and Cane Cases and Bats,
39<: up.)
AUGUSTA TRUNK FACTORY
735 BROAD STREET.
OPPOSITE MONUMENT.
7